•─ Each situation is defined, in a person's mind, by the categories it effortlessly evokes, and that perception, rather than the application of any formal rule, is what guides the person's thinking.
•─ In this sense, one could quite reasonably claim that it's the situation that's “doing the thinking” for the subjects.
Douglas Hofstadter & Emmanuel Sander, Surfaces and essences: analogy as the fuel and fire of thinking, 2013
‘’
“”
─
p.431
Simply because the formal rule is not part of most people's mental repertoire. Even people who discover the one-operation method for the second problem are unlikely to be aware of any such rule. Rather, they just allow the problem itself to direct their thoughts. If they come up with a one-step solution, it's because that is what they are naturally led to. Each situation is defined, in a person's mind, by the categories it effortlessly evokes, and that perception, rather than the application of any formal rule, is what guides the person's thinking.
“”
p.432
In this sense, one could quite reasonably claim that it's the situation that's “doing the thinking” for the subjects.
p.432
In fact, it would take careful intellectual work to recast this problem in set-theoretical language, because set theory is not the framework in which humans naturally perceive it, and that's why efficient solving of the problem by a person should not be taken as showing that the formal rule (the “theorem”) was correctly applied. Rather, the act of perceiving the ballet-lesson situation in terms of familiar time-categories does the bulk of the work for the student, and there is no need whatsoever to code the situation into an arcane, abstract technical formalism such as set theory.
“”
(Surfaces and essences: analogy as the fuel and fire of thinking, Douglas Hofstadter & Emmanuel Sander, 2013, )
____________________________________
•─ In addition, when we have extensively redefined a situation, the odds are greatly increased that we will be able to avoid correctly solving the “wrong” problem. (Note that “wrong” problem in this instance refers to a situation that is not clearly understood.) This is perhaps the most important reason for redefining a problem situation., p.149, Arthur B. VanGundy, Managing group creativity, 1984.
Arthur B. VanGundy, Managing group creativity, 1984 [ ]
p.148
Redefining the Problem
Problems are abstract representations of what we perceive reality to be. They help to provide meaning for the many different situations we encounter. Without problems, we would be unable to distinguish between what is real and what is unreal.
Just as an artist uses canvas and paint to portray some feature of life, so do we use problems to paint pictures of our existence. Like the artist, we sketch a rough outline of a problem in our minds, fill in details, use shading and perspective, and produce a finished product. The result is how we depict reality.
What we consider to be real and unreal is entirely subjective. There are no absolute standards. We each create our own reality to use in interpreting our existence. Depending on our experiences and psychological makeup, what is real for one person will not necessarily be real for another. What you consider to be a problem may be of little concern to me, and vice versa. In one respect, your problems help you deal with your world and my problems help me deal with mine. Occasionally, such as in group situations, our worlds may collide or overlap. When this occurs, our individual perceptions of reality may blend, enabling us to work together to deal with our problem situations.
p.149
When we establish limits or boundaries for a situation, we are defining a problem; when we attempt to break away from these boundaries and see what lies on the other side, we are redefining a problem. Both these actions are highly interrelated and without a beginning or an end. Where one problem ends another may begin.
To define is to understand. When we say that we are defining a problem, we are actually clarifying our understanding of a situation by the use of a concept we call a problem. Problems are not situations. Problems are ways of understanding situations. Thus, when we redefine a problem, we are providing ourselves with a circumscribed way of viewing reality.
To redefine is to change our understanding of a situation. We may achieve such change by pushing out situational boundaries or by drawing them in, by altering the shape of the boundaries or by substituting other elements into the mix that makes up our problem situation. The situation always stays the same--only our understanding changes, because we have reconstructed the boundaries or changed the elements of the situation. The result is a new definition of problem.
p.149
We need to redefine problems in order to increase our understanding of situations.
p.149
In addition, when we have extensively redefined a situation, the odds are greatly increased that we will be able to avoid correctly solving the “wrong” problem. (Note that “wrong” problem in this instance refers to a situation that is not clearly understood.) This is perhaps the most important reason for redefining a problem situation.
p.149
In actual practice, an extensively redefined problem usually is a solved problem.
p.62
A problem must be understood before it can be solved. And understanding cannot be achieved without diagnosis.
[where you are in terms of problem-solving readiness]
p.62
Although many managers and others involved in creative problem solving are aware of the importance of diagnosis to problem solving, it may be fair to say that they are much less aware of the need to use diagnosis before they begin problem solving. Before you can begin diagnosing a problem, you first need to diagnose the context in which you will be doing your problem solving. That is, you need to diagnose the inputs, content, process, product, and outcomes before you start working on a particular problem. Then you need to take whatever actions are required prior to dealing with the focal problem.
Another way of stating all this is that you must first solve the problem of where you are in terms of problem-solving readiness before you can begin dealing with the problem of primary concern. This first set of activities might be referred to as contextual problem solving, while the second set might be referred to as focal problem solving. When you are doing contextual problem solving, you are assessing your inputs, evaluating group understanding of the process to be used, and identifying and understanding the significance of content variables, understanding and analyzing product variables, and anticipating the effects and consequences of outcome variables.
pp.89-90
Problem Dimensions
magnitude
history
location
multiple causes
threat
time horizon
people affected
complexity
(VanGundy, Arthur B., Managing group creativity / Arthur B. VanGundy, 1. problem solving, group, 1984, HD 30.29 .V35 1984, )
____________________________________
[[ this section can be very confusing; I don't know about you, but I find the language confusing. ]]
• false
positive - “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments
when no trouble exists, and ... ”
•── “false positives.” : The first error is overdiagnosis--when an individual tests positive in the test but does not have cancer. Such individuals are called “false positives.” Men and women who falsely test positive find themselves trapped in the punitive stigma of cancer, the familiar cycle of anxiety and terror (and the desire to “do something”) that precipitates further testing and invasive treatment., pp.291-292, Siddhartha Mukherjee, The emperor of all maladies, 2010.
• false
negative - “failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action
when trouble does exist.”
•── “false negatives” : The mirror image of overdiagnosis is underdiagnosis--an error in which a patient truly has cancer but does not test positive for it. Underdiagnosis falsely reassures patients of their freedom from disease. These men and women (“false negatives” in the jargon of epidemiology) enter a different punitive cycle--of despair, shock, and betrayal--once their disease, undetected by the screening test, is eventually uncovered when it becomes symptomatic., pp.291-292, Siddhartha Mukherjee, The emperor of all maladies, 2010.
____________________________________
•─ the costs of two kinds of mistakes: “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ... failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.”
“Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ... ”
“failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.”
false positive
false negative
false
positive - “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments
when no trouble exists, and ... ”
false
negative - “failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action
when trouble does exist.”
p.16 (QMJ 94 Fall)
The technical lectures
In lecture 1, “controlled and uncontrolled variation”, Deming introduced the Shewhart statistical control chart as a tool for bringing a production process into control. He set the tone for this lecture with the opening remark, “Variability is a rule in nature. Repetitions of any procedure will produce variable results.”
Deming followed with definitions of controlled and uncontrolled variation, principally in terms of whether it is (controlled variation) or is not (uncontrolled variation) profitable to try to determine the causes. This economic definition is the same spirit as that offered in the original book of Shewhart (1931). Deming then called uncontrolled
variation a type of “trouble”, and introduced the costs of two kinds of mistakes: “Hunting for trouble and making adjustments when no trouble exists, and ... failing to hunt for trouble and not taking action when trouble does exist.” Deming offered the control chart as the most “economical solution” to this problem.
p.19 QMJ 94 Fall
Deming also used this example to highlight the importance of not mixing data from sources that are known to be different, a priori. He called this “stratification” of data, and it would, in later years, become a key principle among Japanese quality control experts. For example, see Ishikawa (1976). Deming went on to emphasize that “the control chart is no substitute for the brain”; he asked students to “write it down big” so they wouldn't forget it. He cautioned them to imagine in advance what the sources of variation might be, and to attempt to plan how to collect data, and then plot the control charts to discover if variation exists.
p.19 QMJ 94 Fall
Deming advised students to be alert to the potential for improving processes by exploiting instances when the process when out of control in a beneficial direction, and to identify and institutionalize the conditions that caused this to happen.
p.20 QMJ 94 Fall
The most cogent part of Deming's acceptance sampling lectures was the opening section in which he used an example with items arriving in lots of 500 items each. Each lot was exactly 4 percent defective, and Deming used the example to show that any acceptance sampling plan would be unable to improve the quality of lots passed versus the quality of the lots failed ── unless there was substantial lot-to-lot variation. This is a point that is still not appreciated by some practitioners today.
─
p.20 QMJ 94 Fall
how not to do statistical sampling
Deming warned, “The only thing such a plan is good for is to provide employment for a lot of people. It does not provide protection; it does not improve quality.” He went on to state that “The best protection is afforded by acceptance sampling done in conjunction with quality control at the manufacturing plant. It is not economical to try to get a good product by inspecting a lot and taking up only the best ones.”
source:
what deming told the Japanese in 1950
DeminginJapanin1950.pdf
Peter J. Kolesar, Columbia university
QMJ 94 Fall
____________________________________
W. Edwards Deming., The essential Deming : leadership principles from the father of quality, 2013
pp.248─249
Special causes of variation
The question is whether the variation arises from a special cause, or from common causes. A point outside the limits on a control chart indicates the existience of a special cause. Special causes are what Shewhart called assignable causes. The name is not important; the concept is.
Statistical techniques, based as they are on the theory of probability, enable us to govern the risk of being wrong in the interpretation of a test. Statistical techniques defend us, almost unerringly, against the costly and demoralizing practice of blaming variability and rejections on to the wrong person or machine. At the same time, they detect almost unerringly the existence of a special cause when it is worth searching for.
p.266
The economics of a proper sample design.
The statistician does not take unnecessary chances with sampling errors; he cannot leave them to judgment. He has them under control and knows how much it will cost to reduce them to any desired degree. He knows that reliability beyond what can actually be utilized in formulating decisions on the basis of the data is sheer waste of resources. His guiding philosophy is a very practical one, namely, to minimize in the long run, the net losses arising from two kinds of mistakes.
p.300
Shewhart charts were taught in Japan as statistical tools for the economic detection of the existence of special cause of variation, not as tools that actually find the cause.
(The essential Deming : leadership principles from the father of quality / by W. Edwards Deming., 1. total quality management., 2. leadership.,
3. industrial management., HD62.15.D459 2013, 658.4'092--dc23, edited by Joyce Nilsson Orsini, Ph.D., [2013])
____________________________________
W. Edwards Deming., The essential Deming : leadership principles from the father of quality, 2013
pp.238─239
In our example of the spring for the camera, either the production process is in trouble or the apparatus used for testing is giving false readings. Correction is vital, whatever be the source of the trend. If it is the tension of the spring that is drifting downward (and not the testing apparatus), defective springs will be produced in the immediate future. If the source of the trend is faulty testing, then the tests are misleading, and may have been giving faulty reports on all the springs produced during the past week.
In this particular case, the trouble turned out to lie in a thermocouple that permitted the temperature to drift during the annealing of the springs. The process was headed for trouble. The simple tool of the run chart detected the trend before trouble occurred. The operator himself, seeing the trend, was able to head off trouble.
The reader may note that the histogram and the run chart in [Figure 7.2] were plotted from the same data, yet they tell different stories. The histogram by itself gives not indication of anything wrong. The run chart (again, plotted front [from] the same data) leads us to suspect the existence of something wrong, which unless corrected, would soon lead to the production of defective springs.
Knowledge of statistical theory, coupled with practice, leads the statistician to use whatever technique will lead to the correct conclusion about the process, with the smallest probability of being wrong.
It is interesting to note that if the points in [Figure 7.2] had been plotted in random order instead of one after another in the order of production (1, 2, 3, and onward to 50), the run chart would have lost its power to detect a trend. Statisticians are thus not only concerned with figures, but with the relevant figures. In this instance, the order of production was relevant ── very relevant ── and was used to make the run chart. The distributions in [Figure 7.1 and 7.2], on the other hand, do not make use of the order of production. They would remain unchanged, regardless of order: they depend only on the figures recorded as results of inspection. The distribution in [Figure 7.1] nevertheless did its work: it told us that something was wrong (namely, in the inspection itself). A run chart in connexion with [Figure 7.1] would not have added any information. The distribution in [Figure 7.2], however, was helpless to detect the existence of anything wrong. Judging by it alone, without the run chart, we could not have detected impending trouble.
(The essential Deming : leadership principles from the father of quality / by W. Edwards Deming., 1. total quality management., 2. leadership.,
3. industrial management., HD62.15.D459 2013, 658.4'092--dc23, edited by Joyce Nilsson Orsini, Ph.D., [2013])
____________________________________
Ed Catmull with Amy Wallace, creativity, inc., 2014 [ ]
p.26
My first meeting there was with a man named Bob Grindy, who ran George's personal construction projects--not exactly the qualifications you'd expect for a guy spearheading the search for a new computer executive. The first thing he asked me was, “Who else should Lucasfilm be considering for this job?” Meaning, the job I was there to interview for. Without hesitation, I rattled off the names of several people who were doing impressive work in a variety of technical areas.
(creativity, inc. : overcoming the unseen forces that stand in the way of true inspiration / Ed Catmull with Amy Wallace., 1. creativity ability in business2. corporate culture, 3. organizational effectiveness, 4. pixar (firm), © 2014 by Edwin Catmull, 658.4071 Catmull, )
____________________________________
Ed Catmull [ ]
recorded January 31, 2007
uploaded on Jul 28, 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2h2lvhzMDc
13:17
"... because they love alot of things, they were willing to put up with stuff they didn't like. And I think this is one of the fundamental problems with company: Success hides problems. It happens to alot of us in our personal lives with our health. When we are healthy, we doing alot things that are bad for us, but our health let us get away with doing stuff that are bad for us, and years later the logic doesn't hold up, but we do that. It happens with a lot of companies. It happens with states, local, and national governments. When you are healthy and you have got the resources, you don't need to address the problems. ... they were actually very healthy and very strong. The problems were there and they did not have to look at them at that time. They let the success, and they were successful at that time, they let the success get in the way of diving deep and finding the problems.";--Ed Catmull-Pixar, keep your crises small, youtube.com
14:15
22:58
that's why you need a team that works well together
we had a developement department at the time
like the studio
its a group of people looking for ideas to make into movies
we went throught this, we realizes, we're thinking about it in the wrong way
the goal of development is not to find good ideas,
it's to put together teams of people that function well together
and that changed alter the way we thought about making movie
this development department is a support group
it's a failure only if you don't learn from it
it set the way we think about things
copying is a form of learning
37:18
rather than saying, first one is not successful, what can we do to make it successful (it's a failure only if you don't learn from it)
post mortem
there is a note taker
in preparing for it
there is a hand off
just having the discussion surfaces alot of things
·‘’•─“”
<------------------------------------------------------------------------>
____________________________________
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──From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
(Ackoff's best : his classic writings on management, Russell L. Ackoff., © 1999, hardcover, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., p.139)
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