Kondratieff, Nikolai (55-59 years +-2)

[[ this section of the TEXT is here because, it was from reading Kevin Kelly, out of control, [1994] that I got the lead (source) to:
                                                        p.367
                      Theodore Modis, 1992 book, Predictions
                     Invariants, Growth Curves, Cyclic Waves
                                       ]]

Kevin Kelly, out of control, 1994

p.364
The simulation system was not classified; the results were published in the open literature.

p.364
U.S. Military Central Command in Florida
I find the predictive scenarios spooky, strange, and instructional rather than diabolical.

p.364
Wargaming Center, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama
Global Game room, Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island
“sand box” table set-ups, Army's Combat Concepts Agency, Leavenworth, Kansas
TACWAR, JESS, RSAC, SAGA

p.364
Gary Ware, an officer at Central Command
a small cell of military futurists
The simulation was code-named Operation Internal Look.

p.365
TACWAR, the main computerized war-gaming simulator

p.365
Ware's simulation forecast a fairly brief 30-day war if anything this unlikely should occur.

p.365
At first, the upper echelons of the Pentagon had no idea they already owned a fully operational, data-saturated simulation of the war. Turn the key and it would run endless what-ifs of possible battles in that zone. When word of the prescient simulation surfaced, Ware came out smelling like roses. He [Gary Ware] admitted that “If we had to start from scratch at the time of the invasion we would have never caught up.”

p.365
In the future, standard army-issue preparedness may demand having a parallel universe of possible wars spinning in a box at the command center, ready to go.

p.365
By running those simulations in many directions the team quickly learned that airpower would be the decisive key in this war. Further refined iterations clearly showed the war gamers that if airpower was successful, the U.S. would be successful.

p.365
This confidence led to the heavy air campaign.

p.366
tomorrow will be mostly like today

p.367
Theodore Modis, 1992 book, Predictions
Invariants, Growth Curves, Cyclic Waves

p.367
cooking, traveling, cleaning
If new activities (say airplane flight instead of walking) are reformulated into elemental dimensions for analysis (how much time is spent in daily moving), the new behaviors often exhibit a continuous pattern with the odd that can be extrapolated (and predicted) into the future. Instead of walking a half hour to work, you now drive a half hour to work. In the future, you may fly a half hour to work.

p.367
Tracing an invariant optimization point can often alert us to a clean pocket of predictability.

p.367
Among them are a lifespan that can be plotted as an S-shaped curve: slow birth, steep growth, slow decline.

p.368
Modis is intrigued by the 56-years economic cycles discovered by economist N. D. Kondratieff.

   (Kevin Kelly, out of control, 1994, filename: ooc-mf.pdf  )
   ____________________________________

Braudel
The Perspective of the World
Civilization & Capitalism
   15th - 18th Century
        Volume 3

Fernand Braudel [Civilisation matérielle, économie et capitalisme], 1992    [ ]

  p.613
On the other hand, the graphs quite emphatically concur about the Kondratieff cycle which follows: it begins in 1791, peaks in 1812 and reaches its lowest point in 1851. [takes about 19 years to peak, and about 40 years reach the lowest point, 19 + 40 = 59 years Kondratieff cycle]
   We may conclude that the British industrial revolution experienced two movement, roughly between 1781 and 1815, a first and second wind so to speak, the first a rather difficult period, the second easier. In very broad terms, this was also the rhythm experienced by France and the rest of the continent.

p.613
England, like France, was paying the price for the fantastic efforts and money expended on the American war.

p.613
   As a rule the result of an abnormally long depression acts as a severe test of business concerns, in which those which adapt and stand up to attack will survive, while those too weak to survive go to the wall. It was England's good fortune to have entered these rough waters just as the 'second generation' of invention was coming into being: the spinning jenny (1768); the water-powered frame (1769); the powered drill (1775); the rotary steam-engine (1776-81); iron puddling (1784); the first usable threshing machine (1786); the perfected form of the lathe (1794) - cumulatively a huge technical investment paving the way for recovery.
   In 1791, the skies cleared: prices rose, business picked up, there was a greater division of labour, resulting in greater productivity.

p.614
This is quite a conclusive graph, since it shows over a period of centuries the regular correlation between price rises and the fall in real wages: rising prices seem to produce an increase in output and a rise in population - interrelated phenomenona, causally linked - but wages invariably fall; under the conditions of the ancien régime, progress was always at the expense of the living standards of the workers. And this rule, which is indeed the unmistakable sign of the ancien régime, can still be seen at work, according to the Brown-Hopkins figures, between 1760 and 1810-20, with wages hitting their lowest levels in about the 1800s, just as the graph for the economic situation in general is moving towards its highest point.264  When the wages situation improved after 1820, as prices fell, it was simply that the old rules were asserting themselves. The real miracle, the real change did not happen until the beginning of the next Kondratieff cycle, after about 1850 (another key date both in Britain and on the continent). This time when prices moved up, wages kept pace; continuous growth had at last appeared.

p.614
... which combined the catastrophic effects of wretched housing, unhealthy and even contaminated food (for lack of sufficient means of transport), with the social upheaval which tore individuals away from their family roots and the resources of the village community.

p.614
   'Two generations were sacrificed to the creation of an industrial base.'

p.615
French commander and mestre-de-camp Pillet
In Glasgow in 1812, he observed271 that 'the wages of the cotton workers ... are no more than a quarter what they were 19 years ago, although everything has doubled in price in the meantime'.

p.615
   Many historians do not wish to face up to this disturbing fact. They simply refuse to admit it. One will argue that there is no precise or satisfactory method of measuring living standards. Another will say that the situation of the working class was worse or at any rate no better, before the first examples of mechanization. A third says he does not believe that prices ever fell between 1790 and 1830. But what prices are we talking about - nominal or real prices?


p.611
When describing a conjunctural crisis in the economy, I have on the contrary stressed that it does not and cannot have the same impact on the strong and the weak (for instance on Italy and Holland in the 17th century); consequently that it is the occasion of a redistribution of functions and of international economic relations, usually ending up by making the strong stronger and the weak weaker. This is why I do not agree with the argument used by Peter Mathias261 to deny the role played, between 1873 and 1896, by the downward curve of a Kondratieff cycle and its responsibility for the 'Great Depression' which affected England during these years.

p.611
And it is the way the graphs all dip together, whatever the actual price level in each country, which is the surprising but undeniable thing about this crisis.
    What was obvious in the 19th century and is even more obvious in the world today, namely an economic trend affecting huge areas in a similar way and at very much the same time, can already be detected in the 18th century or even earlier.


p.72
The classic example of the Labrousse is the intercycle which brought depression and stagnation to France between 1778 and 1791 on the eve of the Revolution, which it must surely have helped to unleash. The hypercycle or Kuznets, a double Juglar, lasts about 20 years, while a Kondratieff117 spreads over a half-century or more (50+ years): one Kondratieff began in 1791, reached its peak in 1817 and then went downhill until 1851, lasting almost until the Second Empire in France (1852-1870). The longest cycle of all is the secular trend - which has been very little studied in fact, and to which I shall shortly be returning.

p.73
Were there such things as Kondratieffs before 1791 for instance? One historian would reply a little maliciously that if one goes looking for any kind of cycle before 19th century, one is virtually certain to find it.118  His warning is useful so long as it does not obsure the importance of what is at issue. If today's cycles do in fact have some resemblance to those of the past, that indicates that there is a certain continuity between ancien régime and modern economies: rules similar to those governing our present experience may have operated in the past. And if the range of fluctuations turns out to be different, if they bear some other kind of relationship to each other, then it may be possible to detect a significant evolution. I do not therefore think that the Kitchin cycles Pierre Chaunu has detected in the trade of Seville in the 16th century are a mere detail of no consequence,119 nor that the series of Kondratieffs in the history of cereal and bread prices in Cologne between 1368 and 1797 120 have nothing important to tell us about this primordial question of continuity.

p.76
The secular trend seems like a baseline from which prices as a whole take off. If the baseline moves slightly up and down or remains steady, who is going to take much notice, when all the other price movements, those of the short term, superimpose on this base their much more erratic developments, their abrupt rises and falls? The secular trend is sometimes regarded as what is left when all the surface movements have been smoothed out by calculation.

p.80
Kondratieff cycles and the secular trend

p.82
And how is one to explain other types of cycle, not only those of price history but those concerning industrial production (see Hoffman's curves) or the Brazilian gold cycle in the 18th century, or the 200-year Mexican silver cycle (1696-1900), or the fluctuations of the traffic in the port of Seville in the days when it commanded the entire economy of the Atlantic?

    (The perspective of the world, 1992, 909.08 Braudel, )
    (Fernand Braudel [Civilisation matérielle, économie et capitalisme. English], civilization and capitalism, 15th - 18th century, volume III, the perspective of the world, translation from the French, by Siân Reynolds, 909.08 Braudel, [p.82, pp.86-87, p.613]  )
    (Braudel, Fernand. [Civilisation matérielle, économie et capitalisme. English], Civilization and capitalism, 15th - 18th century / Fernand Braudel --1st University of California Press ed., Translation of : Civilisation matérielle, économie et capitalisme.', 1. economic history., 2. social history - modern, 1500 -, 3. civilization, modern - history, English translation © 1984, translation from the French by Siân Reynolds, 1992, )

English translation copyright © 1984 by William Collins Sons & Co. Ltd. and Harper & Row, Publishers, Inc.
   ____________________________________

Peter F. Drucker, Innovation and entrepreneurship, 1984       

p.4
   The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff was executed on Stalin's orders in the mid-1930s because his econometric model predicted, accurately as it turned out, that collectivization of Russian agriculture would lead to a sharp decline in farm production. The “50-year Kondratieff cycle” was based on the inherent dynamics of technology. Every 40 years, so Kondratieff asserted, a long technological wave crests. For the last 20 years of this cycle, the growth industries of the last technological advance seem to be doing exceptional well. But what look like record profits are actually repayment of capital which is no longer needed in industries that have ceased to grow.

pp.4-5
This situation never lasts longer than 20 years, then there is a sudden crisis, usually signaled by some sort of panic. There follow 20 years of stagnation, during which the new, emerging technologies cannot generate enough jobs to make the economy itself grow again--and no one, least of all government, can do much about this.*

   *Kondratjeff's long-wave cycle was popularized in the West by the Austro-American economist Joseph Schumpeter, in his monumental look Business Cycles (1939). Kondratieff's best known, most serious, and most important disciple today--and also the most serious and most knowledgeable of the prophets of “long-term stagnation”--is the MIT scientist Jay Forrester.

p.5
   The industries that fueled the long economic expansion after World War II--automobiles, steel, rubber, electrical apparatus, consumer electronics, telephone, but also petroleum†--perfectly fit the Kondratieff cycle.

   † Which, contrary to common belief, was the first one to start declining. In fact, petroleum ceased to be a growth industry around 1950. Since then the incremental unit of petroleum needed for an additional unit of output, whether in manufacturing, in transportation, or in heating and air conditioning, has been falling--slowly at first but rapidly since 1973.   
   (Peter F. Drucker, Innovation and entrepreneurship : practice and principles, Claremont, California, Christmas 1984, )
   ____________________________________

Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.

p.148
  The resulting graph, Figure 8.1, presents a picture of regular oscillations.  It is so regular that a harmonic waves ── a sinusoidal ── with a fifty-six-year (56-year) time period can be made to pass very closely to most points.

p.149
  This periodicity in energy consumption was first observed by Hugh B. Stewart.1  On several occasion before and after Stewart, economists and others have pointed out many human activities that oscillate within a period of fifty [50] to sixty [60] years.2

p.156
[the existence of economic cycles]
A more contemporary scholar, Joseph A. Schumpeter, tried to explain the existence of economic cycles by attributing growth to the fact that major technological innovations come in clusters.10
An extended list of references on long economic waves can be found in an article by R. Ayres.11

p.156
N. D. Kondratieff
1926
  From economic indicators alone Kondratieff deduced an economic cycle with a period of about fifty [50] years.  His work was promptly challenged.  Critics doubted both the existence of Kondratieff's cycle and the causal explanation suggested by Schumpeter.  The postulation ended up being largely ignored by contemporary economists for a variety of reasons.  In the final analysis, however, the most significant reason for this rejection may have been the boldness of the conclusions drawn from such ambiguous and imprecise data as monetary and financial indicators.

p.156
indicators, like price
inflation and currency fluctuations
monetary indicators

[[ According to Theodore Modis account about Kondratieff economic cycle (also refer to as: Kondratieff's cycle), 1926, N. D. Kondratieff deduced from indictors like price, inflation, currency flutuations, and other monetary indictors that there is a periodic economic cycle of about fifty [50] years.    
     Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992., p.156 ]]

p.156
  Concerning cycles with a period of fifty-six years I have cited examples in this chapter that are based on physical quantities.  Energy consumptions, the use of machines, the discovery of stable elements, the succession of primary energy sources and basic innovations have all been reported in their appropriate units and not in relation to their prices.  The cycles obtained this way are more trustworthy than Kondratieff's economic cycle.  In fact, in the case of energy sources, prices indeed folowed the same cycle by flaring up at the end of each boom.

p.156
fifty-six-year economic cycle

p.169
  We then compared these natural-growth curves to the fifty-six-year {56-year} cycle of energy consumption, which coincides with the economic cycle.  We observed a remarkable correlation between the time these growth curves approach their ceiling and the valleys of the economic cycle.

p.169
recession coincides with saturation of these technologies.
p.170
saturation coincides with economic recession.

p.176
Nakicenovic on the U.K. Wholesale Price Index documented since the sixteenth (16th) century.
p.177
A periodic oscillation recorded over five centuries (500 years)
Figure 9.4
The U.K. Wholesale Price Index smoothed over a rolling 25-year period with respect to a 50-year moving average.  This procedure washes out small fluctuations and reveals a wave.  The periodicity turns out to be 55.5 years.*

p.224
  Once growth is complete, the level reached reflects an equilibrium.  Its signature becomes an invariant or constant that, despite erratic fluctuations,

  (Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis.,  1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.), 3. science and civilization.,  CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992, )
   ____________________________________

Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.

p.156
fifty-six-year economic cycle

pp.156-157
Ever since I became aware of the fifty-six-year {56-year} economic cycle, my concern was not whether a Wall Street crash was around the corner but rather what must one do when faced with an immiment stock market crash.  My calculations suggested a crash around 1985, and the minimum precaution to take was stay away from the stock market.
p.157
  And so I did.  Month after month I resisted the temptation to buy stocks.   Colleagues at work would get excited about the bullish market.  Favorable terms were offered to buy the company stock.  People around me watched their money grow daily.  I kept quiet, hoping to be vindicated by the eventual crash ── but nothing came.  Months went by and the market was still growing.  Years when by!  Well into 1987 my colleagues had all gotten richer while I was feeling rather sour.
p.157
   I broke down.  It was fall, the leaves were changing color, and I was going to the mountains for the weekend with a friend.  I had had enough of holding back.  I wanted to be like the others.  Friday afternoon I called my bank with an order to buy.  I left for the weekend with a feeling that I had finally escaped inaction.  I had at last done something, something I would look forward to on Monday.
p.157
   Over the weekend I enjoyed extraordinary scenery, good weather, reasonable food, and friendship.  But there were more important things waiting for me back at work.  Monday, October 19, 1987, the stock market crashed.  I was crushed.  The amount of money I had lost was not so important, but the pain was excruciating.  At the same time, on another level, my beliefs had been reinforced.  
p.157
The system had behaved according to the plan, was if it had a program, a will, and a clock.  I had access to this knowledge early enough.  My error was due to human weakness; I had not been scientific.  The clock was rather precise, but I should have allowed for an uncertainty of a few percent.  
p.157
  At any rate the crash was over and the stock market largely recovered in a few years.
p.157
But what remained the same was our general position in the long economic cycle:  the recession years.  
p.157
The flares in energy prices in Figure 8.3 can be seen as banners indicating the beginning of an economic downtrend, the end of which we have not yet reached.  We will have to wait until 1996 before the growth trend turns around.
pp.156-157
1985
Monday, October 19, 1987   U.S. stock market crash (U.S.)
1996

  (Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis.,  1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.)., 3. science and civilization.,  CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992, )
   ____________________________________

Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.

p.158
affluence, decadence, alcoholism
cirrhosis of the liver
Its peaks coincide with periods of maximum prosperity,

  (Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis.,  1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.)., 3. science and civilization.,  CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992, )
   ____________________________________

Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.

p.174, p.176
p.174
I was showing my observation of cyclical human behavior to Michael Royston
Michael Royston, teaching environmental sciences in the International Management Institute of Geneva
unpublished paper, written in 1982, he talked about the same fifty-six-year cycle but from another angle.5
pp.174-175
  Royston's thesis: life progresses in spirals and that long-term growth follows a spiral which passes successively through four phases:
discharge,
relaxation,
charge, and
tension,
after which it returns to the starting point, but enriched with new knowledge, experience, and strength.
p.175
Figure 9.3  The Royston spiral.
Life Seen as a spiral
discharge: boom,
relaxation: recession,
charge: new order, new technology
tension: growth
p.176
floating compass (1324),
invention of gun powder and gun making (1380),
the invention of the printing press (1436),
the discovery of America (1492),
the beginning of the Reformation (Luther and Calvin, 1548),
the defeat of the Spanish and the rise of the Dutch (1604),
the arrival on France's throne of Louis XIV (1660),
the rise of the English Empire (1715), and
the American War of Independence (1772).
p.176
  The fifty-six-year periods that followed these events saw successive transfer of powers,
from the French to the British with the end of the Napoleonic era (1828-1884),
from the British to the Germans with the new technologies of chemicals, automobiles, airplanes, and electronic power (1884-1940), and
from the Germans to the Americans with such new technologies as plastics, transistors, antibiotics, organic pesticides, jet engines, and nuclear power (1940-1996).

  (Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis.,  1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.)., 3. science and civilization.,  CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992, )
   ____________________________________
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James Gleick., The information : a history, a theory, a flood, 2011
pp.332-333
This is what science always seeks:  a simple theory that accounts for a large set of facts and allows for prediction of events still to come.

   (The information : a history, a theory, a flood / James Gleick., 1. information science--history., 2. information society., Z665.G547  2011, 020.9--dc22, 2011,  )
<------------------------------------------------------------------------>

Kevin Kelly, out of control, 1994

p.368
In an expectation game, accurate predictions offer no opportunity for money-making if everyone shares the prediction.

([ In term of predict ability, within a given condition and situation, there are pockets of predict ability going forward to about 1 week, using data from the present and the past.  Beyond one week, things become fuzzy.  Prediction should be kept private, whether they turn out to be true or not.  After a period of time, it should not matter so much to reveal the prediction if (overtaken by events - OBE).  However a public revelation could served as data point for whose who are engaging in the forecasting activity.  Should there be active information manipulation - disinformation, misinformation, deception - and/or active [travel method] modification - like delay, traffic jam, accidents, lockdown, sickness [like pneumonia] - then predict ability becomes less reliable.  Because the active operation creates signal that would not have been there if there was no operation.  The additional signal would influence the prediction - how much is unclear - it depends on the type of signal. ])

   (Kevin Kelly, out of control, 1994, filename: ooc-mf.pdf  )
   ____________________________________

[[ I am unsure as to why the following TEXT is put here ]]
[[ my best guess is that there is a pattern to heavy travel schedule (which inevitably disrupt your body internal clock, biorhythm, and ...), the inability to get adequate rest (constantly changing the place and the time you are going to bed), not enough nutritional support, negative stress, and inability and lack prioritization to manage all these stressors (routine stretching, yoga, tai chi, and walking) (for example, it was said that Conndelisa Rice always requested that a treadmill be put into her suit, so that she can get enough walking exercise, and for convenience) that could lead to getting sickness, like pneumonia, from the air?  and distressed immune system ]]
[[ how is this related to Kondratieff economic cycle?  none at all, actually.  Kondratieff is not an economic indicator.  The activities in the economy,  humanity demographic, human activities (action and mental model) and their life stage collectively determine the Kondratieff cycle (the curve, the peak, the trough, the downward trend, the recovery).  ]]
[[ According to Theodore Modis account about Kondratieff economic cycle (also refer to as: Kondratieff's cycle), 1926, N. D. Kondratieff deduced from indictors like price, inflation, currency flutuations, and other monetary indictors that there is a periodic economic cycle of about fifty [50] years.    
     Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992., p.156 ]]
[[ How is Kondratieff economic cycle (also refer to as: Kondratieff's cycle) related to travel, schedule, and sickness [specifically pneumonia]?    ]]

travelled, schedule, sickness [pneumonia]
p.40
in the summer of 1956, he and Loftus travelled to Alaska and Japan to visit strategic warning sites and local COMINT intercept and analysis sites.
In September returned to Europe for a long visit ── traveling across western Europe through the winter to various COMINT locations.
He developed pneumonia in Paris and was forced to delay his return until February 1957.125

source:
John Schutte, ‘Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War’, 2015, http://www.au.af.mil/au/aupress/digital/pdf/paper/dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf

dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf

Schutte, John M., 1976
  Casting net assessment : Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war / John M. Schutte, Lieutenant Colonel, USAF.
1. Marshall, Andrew W., 1921─ 2. United States. department of defense. director of net assessment ── biography. 3. united states. department of defense ── officials and employees ── biography. 4. rand corporation ── biography. 5. united states ── forecasting. 6. military planning ── united states ── history ── 20th century. 7. military planning ── united states ── history ── 21st century. 8. united states ── military policy. 9. strategy. 10. cold war.
title: Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war.

UA23.6.S43 2014
355.0092 -- dc23
  ·‘’•─“”
<------------------------------------------------------------------------>
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     (Ackoff's best : his classic writings on management, Russell L. Ackoff., © 1999, hardcover, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., p.139)

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