Tuesday, December 10, 2024

learning (kolb)

 David A. Kolb, Experiential Learning, 1984                      [ ]

p.35
     In experiential learning theory, the transactional relationship between the person and the environment is symbolized in the dual meanings of the term experience — one subjective and personal, referring to the person's internal state, as in the "the experience of joy and happiness," and the other objective and environmental, as in, "He has 20 years of experience on this job."  These two forms of experience interpenetrate and interrelate in very complex ways, as, for example, in the old saw, "He doesn't have 20 years experience, but one year repeated 20 times."  Dewey describes the matter this way:

—<begin citation, John Dewey>

                Experience does not go on simply inside a person.  It does go on there, for it influences the formation of attitudes of desire and purpose.  But this is not the whole of the story.  Every genuine experience has an active side which changes in some degree the objective conditions under which experiences are had.  The difference between civilization and savagery, to take an example on a large scale, is found in the degree in which previous experiences have changed the objective conditions under which subsequent experiences take place.  The existence of roads, of means of rapid movement and transportation, tools, implements, furniture, electric light and power, are illustrations.  Destroy the external conditions of present civilized experience, and for a time our experience would relapse into that of barbaric peoples . . . .
                The word "interaction" assigns equal rights to both factors in experience — objective and internal conditions.  Any normal experience is an interplay of these two sets of conditions.  Taken together . . . they form what we call a situation.
                The statement that individuals live in a world means, in the concrete, that they live in a series of situations.  And when it it said that they live in these situations, the meaning of the word "in" is different from its meaning when it is said that pennies are "in" a pocket or paint is "in" a can.  It means, once more, that interaction is going on between an individual and objects and other persons.  The conceptions of situation and of interaction are inseparable from each other.  An experience is always what it is because of a transaction taking place between an individual and what, at the time, constitutes his environment, whether the latter consists of persons with whom he is talking about some topic or event, the subject talked about being also a part of the situation; the book he is reading (in which his environing conditions at the time may be England or ancient Greece or an imaginary region); or the materials of an experiment he is performing.  The environment, in other words, is whatever conditions interact with personal needs, desires, purposes, and capacities to create the experience which is had.  Even when a person builds a castle in the air he is interacting with the objects which he constructs in fancy. [Dewey, 1938, p. 39, 43-43]

——<end citation, John Dewey>

     (David A. Kolb, 1984, Experiential Learning : experience as the source of learning and development, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.)
(Chapter Two, The process of experiential learning, p.35)
   ____________________________________

Daniel Ellsberg, Secrets : a memoir of vietnam and the pentagon papers, 2002 

pp.185─186 
; an operation eight months later in the same paddies that was not even aware American troops had ever visited them before.  AS Tran Ngoc Chau said to me in 1968, “You Americans feel you have been fighting this was for seven years. You have not. You have been fighting it for one year, seven times.”

p.347
   I said that I thought strongly that he should, at least to read the summaries, which were only a few single-spaced pages at the start of each volume.  He could have an assistant read the texts and pick out passages that seemed especially pertinent.  But the summaries alone added up to about sixty pages.  “They make a very readable story.  You really should make the effort.”
   “But do we really have anything to learn from this study?”

p.347
Yet in fact each administration, including this one, repeated the same patterns in decision making and pretty much the same (hopeless) policy as its predecessor, without even knowing it.  

p.134
   Along the road was an unusual succession of abandoned the fortifications, of varying constructions, that dated from different periods successively further back in time.  There were recent Popular Force outposts.  WE had supplied the wages for the local militia that had built them and the cement, if there was any.  But basically these were mud forts, very primitive little outposts along the road supposedly to protect local hamlets.  They had been recently abandoned because of the regional nonviolent uprising against the Saigon regime, which had been paying the troops out of the U.S. aid.  Posts like these I'd seen all over Vietnam. 
   But next to one of them was a pill box of another kind, better constructed and made out of concrete, a cylindrical box with narrow portholes.  The interpreter driving with me, a young Vietnamese lieutenant, explained that this had been built by the French.  I recognized that it looked like one of the smaller pillboxes I had seen in pictures of the French Maginot Line at the outset of the German invasion of France.  We drove by several of those.  Most were from the 1946─54 war by France  to regain its colony, during which it had run a pacification program very similar to ours.  But some of them, the lieutenant pointed out, went back much earlier, to the twenties and thirties (when the Maginot Line had been built) and even much earlier in the French pacification of Vietnam. 
   In the midsts of these, along the road, were some pillboxes of a distinctly different sort, also concrete but rounded, like ovens.  I recognized those from pictures of the Pacific island fighting by the marines in World war II.  They were Japanese, built when the Japanese had pacified  the area of what was now I Corps in their occupation of Vietnam during the war.  Finally, we came to a massive knoll, overgrown with grass and studded with very old stones.  I was told it was an ancient Chinese fort, constructed when the Chinese had pacified Vietnam, starting with what was now I Corps, over a period of a thousand years.  When the interpreter told me that, I was reminded of that Tran Ngoc Chau had once  said to me:  “You must understand that we are a people who think of ourselves as having defeated the Chinese though it took us a thousand years.”
─“”

   (Secrets : a memoir of vietnam and the pentagon papers / daniel ellsberg., 1. vietnamese conflict, 1961─1975──unitd states., 2. pentagon papers., 3. ellsberg, daniel., DS558 .E44 2002, 959.704'3373──dc21, 2002, )
   ____________________________________

growing degree days (GDDs)

 
Keith Stewart., Storey's guide to growing organic vegetable & herbs for market, [2013]

pp.78─79
   I learned the importances of day length the hard way with my broccoli crop.  In my early days of farming, it took me a few years to figure out why I couldn't get decent heads of broccoli in fall.  Invariably, they would be only 2 or 3 inches in diameter by November, when damaging frosts are likely to occur.  I gave the plants more fertilizer and more generous spacing, but these measures didn't help much.
   My mistake, in turned out, was to assume that the “days to harvest” numbers given in the seed catalogs were reliable throughout the growing season.  Indeed, they were fairly accurate if we seeded broccoli in spring and allowed it to enjoy the longer growing days.  But eventually, it became clear to me that to get decent heads of broccoli in fall, it was necesssary to give the plants at least another month of growing time. 
─“”

p.79
Growing degree days

Aside from a simple visual inspectin, one way to gauge when a specific crop should be ready for harvest is to keep track of growing degree days (GDDs), which are a culmulative measure of warmth over time.  In most parts of North America, GDDs (they are really units rather than actual days) occur when the average temperature for the day is above 50 degree F (10 degree C).  For example, if the high temperature on May 15 was 78 degree F and the low 42 degree F, the average for the day would be 60 degree F.

   (78 + 42) / 2 = 60
   Since 60 degree F is 10 degrees above the baseline of 50 degree F, we have an accumulation of 10 GDDs.  Average daily temperatures below 50 degree F are ignored, rather than subtracted from the running total.  (Depending on their locatin and subject of study, scientists might use a GDD baseline that is above or below 50 degree F.)
   Because plant growth and development are strongly influenced by the amount of warmth that is accumulated over time, the total GDDs accrued during a given period can be used to determine when a specific crop should be mature and ready for harvest.  GDDs are an aspect of the very interesting science of phenology ── the study of how climatic and cyclic phenomena influence plant and animal growth and behavior. 
   A farmer might use GDDs to predict other phenological cycles, such as when certain insect pests will emerge from dormancy and become active.  This method of keeping track of accumulated warmth is a more reliable indicator of plant growth and other cyclic events in nature than the calendar method, which provides dates based only on the historical record for a given area.  Various websites keep track of GDDs for different North American regions and locales.  Just type  “growing degree days”  in your web browser to learn more. 
─“”
   ( Storey's guide to growing organic vegetable & herbs for market / by Keith Stewart.
Guide to growing organic vegetables & herbs for market
Growing organic vegetables and herbs for market
includes index.
1. organic gardening.
2. farmers' markets.
3. vegetables──organic farming.
4. herbs──organic farming.
SB453.5.S84  2013
631.584──dc23
             )
·‘’•─“”
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   ____________________________________
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     (Ackoff's best : his classic writings on management, Russell L. Ackoff., © 1999, hardcover, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., p.139)

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--
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior permission of the publisher.  

The W. Edwards Deming Institute.  All rights reserved.  Except as permitted under the United States copyright act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. 

All right reserved.  No part of this book may be reproduced without written permission from the publisher, except by a reviewer who may quote brief passages or reproduce illustrations in a review with appropriate credits nor may any part of this book be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means ── electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or other ── without written permission from the publisher. 
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notice:  Do not purchase this book with the hopes of curing cancer or any other chronic disease
   We offer it for informative purposes to help cope with health situations and do not claim this book furnishes information as to an effective treatment or cure of the disease discussed ─ according to currently accepted medical opinion.  
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Saturday, December 7, 2024

what is it?

 It is a great deal more valued than money.
It is the  inexplicable  raw material of everything.
With it, all is possible; with out it, nothing is possible. 
The supply of it, though regular, is restricted. 
It is truly a daily miracle.
You wake up in the morning, and your purse is magically filled.
It is the unmanufactured commodity of life!
Many have tried to manufactured more of it; none has been successful. 
It is the most precious of possessions.
No one can take it from you.
It is unsteal able.
No one receives more or less than you receive.
An ideal democracy!
No aristocracy of wealth, no aristocracy of intellect.
A genius or a knave receives the same allotment daily. 
Never shall you have any more of it.    
Waste this infinitely precious commodity as much as you will, 
and the supply will never be withheld from you.
And there is no punishment. 
It is as certain as the rising and setting of the Sun.
You can not withdraw from its future.
It is impossible to get into debt!
It can not be put away in a saving account
or a piggy bank. 
You can only waste it in the passing of moment.
Its right use, its most effective use, 
is a matter of the highest urgency.
Out of it you have health, pleasure, money, content, respect, 
and the evolution of your immortal soul. 
Your happiness depends on it.
If you have not guess the answer by now, 
What is it? 






















answer:  time, day, today, 24 hours
the answer is  today, new day, or 24 hours would have the best fit to the riddle 
The statement:  You wake up in the morning, and your purse is magically filled.
For most people, you go to bed to sleep, rest and recovery, and each day when you get out of bed and wake up, you get a brand new day.  So today, or The day would fit.  
24 hours solar cycle, solar cycle, one rotation of the Earth on its axis

source: 
        How to Live on Twenty-Four Hours a Day 
        by Arnold Bennett
   ____________________________________


Kondratieff, Nikolai (55-59 years +-2)


[[ this section of the TEXT is here because, it was from reading Kevin Kelly, out of control, [1994] that I got the lead (source) to:
                                                        p.367
                      Theodore Modis, 1992 book, Predictions
                     Invariants, Growth Curves, Cyclic Waves
                                       ]]

Kevin Kelly, out of control, 1994

p.364
The simulation system was not classified; the results were published in the open literature.

p.364
U.S. Military Central Command in Florida
I find the predictive scenarios spooky, strange, and instructional rather than diabolical.

p.364
Wargaming Center, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama
Global Game room, Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island
“sand box” table set-ups, Army's Combat Concepts Agency, Leavenworth, Kansas
TACWAR, JESS, RSAC, SAGA

p.364
Gary Ware, an officer at Central Command
a small cell of military futurists
The simulation was code-named Operation Internal Look.

p.365
TACWAR, the main computerized war-gaming simulator

p.365
Ware's simulation forecast a fairly brief 30-day war if anything this unlikely should occur.

p.365
At first, the upper echelons of the Pentagon had no idea they already owned a fully operational, data-saturated simulation of the war. Turn the key and it would run endless what-ifs of possible battles in that zone. When word of the prescient simulation surfaced, Ware came out smelling like roses. He [Gary Ware] admitted that “If we had to start from scratch at the time of the invasion we would have never caught up.”

p.365
In the future, standard army-issue preparedness may demand having a parallel universe of possible wars spinning in a box at the command center, ready to go.

p.365
By running those simulations in many directions the team quickly learned that airpower would be the decisive key in this war. Further refined iterations clearly showed the war gamers that if airpower was successful, the U.S. would be successful.

p.365
This confidence led to the heavy air campaign.

p.366
tomorrow will be mostly like today

p.367
Theodore Modis, 1992 book, Predictions
Invariants, Growth Curves, Cyclic Waves

p.367
cooking, traveling, cleaning
If new activities (say airplane flight instead of walking) are reformulated into elemental dimensions for analysis (how much time is spent in daily moving), the new behaviors often exhibit a continuous pattern with the odd that can be extrapolated (and predicted) into the future. Instead of walking a half hour to work, you now drive a half hour to work. In the future, you may fly a half hour to work.

p.367
Tracing an invariant optimization point can often alert us to a clean pocket of predictability.

p.367
Among them are a lifespan that can be plotted as an S-shaped curve: slow birth, steep growth, slow decline.

p.368
Modis is intrigued by the 56-years economic cycles discovered by economist N. D. Kondratieff.

   (Kevin Kelly, out of control, 1994, filename: ooc-mf.pdf  )
   ____________________________________

Braudel
The Perspective of the World
Civilization & Capitalism
   15th - 18th Century
        Volume 3

Fernand Braudel [Civilisation matérielle, économie et capitalisme], 1992    [ ]

  p.613
On the other hand, the graphs quite emphatically concur about the Kondratieff cycle which follows: it begins in 1791, peaks in 1812 and reaches its lowest point in 1851. [takes about 19 years to peak, and about 40 years reach the lowest point, 19 + 40 = 59 years Kondratieff cycle]
   We may conclude that the British industrial revolution experienced two movement, roughly between 1781 and 1815, a first and second wind so to speak, the first a rather difficult period, the second easier. In very broad terms, this was also the rhythm experienced by France and the rest of the continent.

p.613
England, like France, was paying the price for the fantastic efforts and money expended on the American war.

p.613
   As a rule the result of an abnormally long depression acts as a severe test of business concerns, in which those which adapt and stand up to attack will survive, while those too weak to survive go to the wall. It was England's good fortune to have entered these rough waters just as the 'second generation' of invention was coming into being: the spinning jenny (1768); the water-powered frame (1769); the powered drill (1775); the rotary steam-engine (1776-81); iron puddling (1784); the first usable threshing machine (1786); the perfected form of the lathe (1794) - cumulatively a huge technical investment paving the way for recovery.
   In 1791, the skies cleared: prices rose, business picked up, there was a greater division of labour, resulting in greater productivity.

p.614
This is quite a conclusive graph, since it shows over a period of centuries the regular correlation between price rises and the fall in real wages: rising prices seem to produce an increase in output and a rise in population - interrelated phenomenona, causally linked - but wages invariably fall; under the conditions of the ancien régime, progress was always at the expense of the living standards of the workers. And this rule, which is indeed the unmistakable sign of the ancien régime, can still be seen at work, according to the Brown-Hopkins figures, between 1760 and 1810-20, with wages hitting their lowest levels in about the 1800s, just as the graph for the economic situation in general is moving towards its highest point.264  When the wages situation improved after 1820, as prices fell, it was simply that the old rules were asserting themselves. The real miracle, the real change did not happen until the beginning of the next Kondratieff cycle, after about 1850 (another key date both in Britain and on the continent). This time when prices moved up, wages kept pace; continuous growth had at last appeared.

p.614
... which combined the catastrophic effects of wretched housing, unhealthy and even contaminated food (for lack of sufficient means of transport), with the social upheaval which tore individuals away from their family roots and the resources of the village community.

p.614
   'Two generations were sacrificed to the creation of an industrial base.'

p.615
French commander and mestre-de-camp Pillet
In Glasgow in 1812, he observed271 that 'the wages of the cotton workers ... are no more than a quarter what they were 19 years ago, although everything has doubled in price in the meantime'.

p.615
   Many historians do not wish to face up to this disturbing fact. They simply refuse to admit it. One will argue that there is no precise or satisfactory method of measuring living standards. Another will say that the situation of the working class was worse or at any rate no better, before the first examples of mechanization. A third says he does not believe that prices ever fell between 1790 and 1830. But what prices are we talking about - nominal or real prices?


p.611
When describing a conjunctural crisis in the economy, I have on the contrary stressed that it does not and cannot have the same impact on the strong and the weak (for instance on Italy and Holland in the 17th century); consequently that it is the occasion of a redistribution of functions and of international economic relations, usually ending up by making the strong stronger and the weak weaker. This is why I do not agree with the argument used by Peter Mathias261 to deny the role played, between 1873 and 1896, by the downward curve of a Kondratieff cycle and its responsibility for the 'Great Depression' which affected England during these years.

p.611
And it is the way the graphs all dip together, whatever the actual price level in each country, which is the surprising but undeniable thing about this crisis.
    What was obvious in the 19th century and is even more obvious in the world today, namely an economic trend affecting huge areas in a similar way and at very much the same time, can already be detected in the 18th century or even earlier.


p.72
The classic example of the Labrousse is the intercycle which brought depression and stagnation to France between 1778 and 1791 on the eve of the Revolution, which it must surely have helped to unleash. The hypercycle or Kuznets, a double Juglar, lasts about 20 years, while a Kondratieff117 spreads over a half-century or more (50+ years): one Kondratieff began in 1791, reached its peak in 1817 and then went downhill until 1851, lasting almost until the Second Empire in France (1852-1870). The longest cycle of all is the secular trend - which has been very little studied in fact, and to which I shall shortly be returning.

p.73
Were there such things as Kondratieffs before 1791 for instance? One historian would reply a little maliciously that if one goes looking for any kind of cycle before 19th century, one is virtually certain to find it.118  His warning is useful so long as it does not obsure the importance of what is at issue. If today's cycles do in fact have some resemblance to those of the past, that indicates that there is a certain continuity between ancien régime and modern economies: rules similar to those governing our present experience may have operated in the past. And if the range of fluctuations turns out to be different, if they bear some other kind of relationship to each other, then it may be possible to detect a significant evolution. I do not therefore think that the Kitchin cycles Pierre Chaunu has detected in the trade of Seville in the 16th century are a mere detail of no consequence,119 nor that the series of Kondratieffs in the history of cereal and bread prices in Cologne between 1368 and 1797 120 have nothing important to tell us about this primordial question of continuity.

p.76
The secular trend seems like a baseline from which prices as a whole take off. If the baseline moves slightly up and down or remains steady, who is going to take much notice, when all the other price movements, those of the short term, superimpose on this base their much more erratic developments, their abrupt rises and falls? The secular trend is sometimes regarded as what is left when all the surface movements have been smoothed out by calculation.

p.80
Kondratieff cycles and the secular trend

p.82
And how is one to explain other types of cycle, not only those of price history but those concerning industrial production (see Hoffman's curves) or the Brazilian gold cycle in the 18th century, or the 200-year Mexican silver cycle (1696-1900), or the fluctuations of the traffic in the port of Seville in the days when it commanded the entire economy of the Atlantic?

    (The perspective of the world, 1992, 909.08 Braudel, )
    (Fernand Braudel [Civilisation matérielle, économie et capitalisme. English], civilization and capitalism, 15th - 18th century, volume III, the perspective of the world, translation from the French, by Siân Reynolds, 909.08 Braudel, [p.82, pp.86-87, p.613]  )
    (Braudel, Fernand. [Civilisation matérielle, économie et capitalisme. English], Civilization and capitalism, 15th - 18th century / Fernand Braudel --1st University of California Press ed., Translation of : Civilisation matérielle, économie et capitalisme.', 1. economic history., 2. social history - modern, 1500 -, 3. civilization, modern - history, English translation © 1984, translation from the French by Siân Reynolds, 1992, )

English translation copyright © 1984 by William Collins Sons & Co. Ltd. and Harper & Row, Publishers, Inc.
   ____________________________________

Peter F. Drucker, Innovation and entrepreneurship, 1984       

p.4
   The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff was executed on Stalin's orders in the mid-1930s because his econometric model predicted, accurately as it turned out, that collectivization of Russian agriculture would lead to a sharp decline in farm production. The “50-year Kondratieff cycle” was based on the inherent dynamics of technology. Every 40 years, so Kondratieff asserted, a long technological wave crests. For the last 20 years of this cycle, the growth industries of the last technological advance seem to be doing exceptional well. But what look like record profits are actually repayment of capital which is no longer needed in industries that have ceased to grow.

pp.4-5
This situation never lasts longer than 20 years, then there is a sudden crisis, usually signaled by some sort of panic. There follow 20 years of stagnation, during which the new, emerging technologies cannot generate enough jobs to make the economy itself grow again--and no one, least of all government, can do much about this.*

   *Kondratjeff's long-wave cycle was popularized in the West by the Austro-American economist Joseph Schumpeter, in his monumental look Business Cycles (1939). Kondratieff's best known, most serious, and most important disciple today--and also the most serious and most knowledgeable of the prophets of “long-term stagnation”--is the MIT scientist Jay Forrester.

p.5
   The industries that fueled the long economic expansion after World War II--automobiles, steel, rubber, electrical apparatus, consumer electronics, telephone, but also petroleum†--perfectly fit the Kondratieff cycle.

   † Which, contrary to common belief, was the first one to start declining. In fact, petroleum ceased to be a growth industry around 1950. Since then the incremental unit of petroleum needed for an additional unit of output, whether in manufacturing, in transportation, or in heating and air conditioning, has been falling--slowly at first but rapidly since 1973.   
   (Peter F. Drucker, Innovation and entrepreneurship : practice and principles, Claremont, California, Christmas 1984, )
   ____________________________________

Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.

p.148
  The resulting graph, Figure 8.1, presents a picture of regular oscillations.  It is so regular that a harmonic waves ── a sinusoidal ── with a fifty-six-year (56-year) time period can be made to pass very closely to most points.

p.149
  This periodicity in energy consumption was first observed by Hugh B. Stewart.1  On several occasion before and after Stewart, economists and others have pointed out many human activities that oscillate within a period of fifty [50] to sixty [60] years.2

p.156
[the existence of economic cycles]
A more contemporary scholar, Joseph A. Schumpeter, tried to explain the existence of economic cycles by attributing growth to the fact that major technological innovations come in clusters.10
An extended list of references on long economic waves can be found in an article by R. Ayres.11

p.156
N. D. Kondratieff
1926
  From economic indicators alone Kondratieff deduced an economic cycle with a period of about fifty [50] years.  His work was promptly challenged.  Critics doubted both the existence of Kondratieff's cycle and the causal explanation suggested by Schumpeter.  The postulation ended up being largely ignored by contemporary economists for a variety of reasons.  In the final analysis, however, the most significant reason for this rejection may have been the boldness of the conclusions drawn from such ambiguous and imprecise data as monetary and financial indicators.

p.156
indicators, like price
inflation and currency fluctuations
monetary indicators

[[ According to Theodore Modis account about Kondratieff economic cycle (also refer to as: Kondratieff's cycle), 1926, N. D. Kondratieff deduced from indictors like price, inflation, currency flutuations, and other monetary indictors that there is a periodic economic cycle of about fifty [50] years.    
     Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992., p.156 ]]

p.156
  Concerning cycles with a period of fifty-six years I have cited examples in this chapter that are based on physical quantities.  Energy consumptions, the use of machines, the discovery of stable elements, the succession of primary energy sources and basic innovations have all been reported in their appropriate units and not in relation to their prices.  The cycles obtained this way are more trustworthy than Kondratieff's economic cycle.  In fact, in the case of energy sources, prices indeed folowed the same cycle by flaring up at the end of each boom.

p.156
fifty-six-year economic cycle

p.169
  We then compared these natural-growth curves to the fifty-six-year {56-year} cycle of energy consumption, which coincides with the economic cycle.  We observed a remarkable correlation between the time these growth curves approach their ceiling and the valleys of the economic cycle.

p.169
recession coincides with saturation of these technologies.
p.170
saturation coincides with economic recession.

p.176
Nakicenovic on the U.K. Wholesale Price Index documented since the sixteenth (16th) century.
p.177
A periodic oscillation recorded over five centuries (500 years)
Figure 9.4
The U.K. Wholesale Price Index smoothed over a rolling 25-year period with respect to a 50-year moving average.  This procedure washes out small fluctuations and reveals a wave.  The periodicity turns out to be 55.5 years.*

p.224
  Once growth is complete, the level reached reflects an equilibrium.  Its signature becomes an invariant or constant that, despite erratic fluctuations,

  (Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis.,  1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.), 3. science and civilization.,  CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992, )
   ____________________________________

Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.

p.156
fifty-six-year economic cycle

pp.156-157
Ever since I became aware of the fifty-six-year {56-year} economic cycle, my concern was not whether a Wall Street crash was around the corner but rather what must one do when faced with an immiment stock market crash.  My calculations suggested a crash around 1985, and the minimum precaution to take was stay away from the stock market.
p.157
  And so I did.  Month after month I resisted the temptation to buy stocks.   Colleagues at work would get excited about the bullish market.  Favorable terms were offered to buy the company stock.  People around me watched their money grow daily.  I kept quiet, hoping to be vindicated by the eventual crash ── but nothing came.  Months went by and the market was still growing.  Years when by!  Well into 1987 my colleagues had all gotten richer while I was feeling rather sour.
p.157
   I broke down.  It was fall, the leaves were changing color, and I was going to the mountains for the weekend with a friend.  I had had enough of holding back.  I wanted to be like the others.  Friday afternoon I called my bank with an order to buy.  I left for the weekend with a feeling that I had finally escaped inaction.  I had at last done something, something I would look forward to on Monday.
p.157
   Over the weekend I enjoyed extraordinary scenery, good weather, reasonable food, and friendship.  But there were more important things waiting for me back at work.  Monday, October 19, 1987, the stock market crashed.  I was crushed.  The amount of money I had lost was not so important, but the pain was excruciating.  At the same time, on another level, my beliefs had been reinforced.  
p.157
The system had behaved according to the plan, was if it had a program, a will, and a clock.  I had access to this knowledge early enough.  My error was due to human weakness; I had not been scientific.  The clock was rather precise, but I should have allowed for an uncertainty of a few percent.  
p.157
  At any rate the crash was over and the stock market largely recovered in a few years.
p.157
But what remained the same was our general position in the long economic cycle:  the recession years.  
p.157
The flares in energy prices in Figure 8.3 can be seen as banners indicating the beginning of an economic downtrend, the end of which we have not yet reached.  We will have to wait until 1996 before the growth trend turns around.
pp.156-157
1985
Monday, October 19, 1987   U.S. stock market crash (U.S.)
1996

  (Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis.,  1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.)., 3. science and civilization.,  CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992, )
   ____________________________________

Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.

p.158
affluence, decadence, alcoholism
cirrhosis of the liver
Its peaks coincide with periods of maximum prosperity,

  (Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis.,  1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.)., 3. science and civilization.,  CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992, )
   ____________________________________

Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992.

p.174, p.176
p.174
I was showing my observation of cyclical human behavior to Michael Royston
Michael Royston, teaching environmental sciences in the International Management Institute of Geneva
unpublished paper, written in 1982, he talked about the same fifty-six-year cycle but from another angle.5
pp.174-175
  Royston's thesis: life progresses in spirals and that long-term growth follows a spiral which passes successively through four phases:
discharge,
relaxation,
charge, and
tension,
after which it returns to the starting point, but enriched with new knowledge, experience, and strength.
p.175
Figure 9.3  The Royston spiral.
Life Seen as a spiral
discharge: boom,
relaxation: recession,
charge: new order, new technology
tension: growth
p.176
floating compass (1324),
invention of gun powder and gun making (1380),
the invention of the printing press (1436),
the discovery of America (1492),
the beginning of the Reformation (Luther and Calvin, 1548),
the defeat of the Spanish and the rise of the Dutch (1604),
the arrival on France's throne of Louis XIV (1660),
the rise of the English Empire (1715), and
the American War of Independence (1772).
p.176
  The fifty-six-year periods that followed these events saw successive transfer of powers,
from the French to the British with the end of the Napoleonic era (1828-1884),
from the British to the Germans with the new technologies of chemicals, automobiles, airplanes, and electronic power (1884-1940), and
from the Germans to the Americans with such new technologies as plastics, transistors, antibiotics, organic pesticides, jet engines, and nuclear power (1940-1996).

  (Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future / Theodore Modis.,  1. forecasting., 2. creation (literary, artistic, etc.)., 3. science and civilization.,  CB 158.M63, 303.49--dc20, 1992, )
   ____________________________________
<------------------------------------------------------------------------>

James Gleick., The information : a history, a theory, a flood, 2011
pp.332-333
This is what science always seeks:  a simple theory that accounts for a large set of facts and allows for prediction of events still to come.

   (The information : a history, a theory, a flood / James Gleick., 1. information science--history., 2. information society., Z665.G547  2011, 020.9--dc22, 2011,  )
<------------------------------------------------------------------------>

Kevin Kelly, out of control, 1994

p.368
In an expectation game, accurate predictions offer no opportunity for money-making if everyone shares the prediction.

([ In term of predict ability, within a given condition and situation, there are pockets of predict ability going forward to about 1 week, using data from the present and the past.  Beyond one week, things become fuzzy.  Prediction should be kept private, whether they turn out to be true or not.  After a period of time, it should not matter so much to reveal the prediction if (overtaken by events - OBE).  However a public revelation could served as data point for whose who are engaging in the forecasting activity.  Should there be active information manipulation - disinformation, misinformation, deception - and/or active [travel method] modification - like delay, traffic jam, accidents, lockdown, sickness [like pneumonia] - then predict ability becomes less reliable.  Because the active operation creates signal that would not have been there if there was no operation.  The additional signal would influence the prediction - how much is unclear - it depends on the type of signal. ])

   (Kevin Kelly, out of control, 1994, filename: ooc-mf.pdf  )
   ____________________________________

[[ I am unsure as to why the following TEXT is put here ]]
[[ my best guess is that there is a pattern to heavy travel schedule (which inevitably disrupt your body internal clock, biorhythm, and ...), the inability to get adequate rest (constantly changing the place and the time you are going to bed), not enough nutritional support, negative stress, and inability and lack prioritization to manage all these stressors (routine stretching, yoga, tai chi, and walking) (for example, it was said that Conndelisa Rice always requested that a treadmill be put into her suit, so that she can get enough walking exercise, and for convenience) that could lead to getting sickness, like pneumonia, from the air?  and distressed immune system ]]
[[ how is this related to Kondratieff economic cycle?  none at all, actually.  Kondratieff is not an economic indicator.  The activities in the economy,  humanity demographic, human activities (action and mental model) and their life stage collectively determine the Kondratieff cycle (the curve, the peak, the trough, the downward trend, the recovery).  ]]
[[ According to Theodore Modis account about Kondratieff economic cycle (also refer to as: Kondratieff's cycle), 1926, N. D. Kondratieff deduced from indictors like price, inflation, currency flutuations, and other monetary indictors that there is a periodic economic cycle of about fifty [50] years.    
     Theodore Modis., Prediction : society's telltale signature reveals the past and forecasts the future, 1992., p.156 ]]
[[ How is Kondratieff economic cycle (also refer to as: Kondratieff's cycle) related to travel, schedule, and sickness [specifically pneumonia]?    ]]

travelled, schedule, sickness [pneumonia]
p.40
in the summer of 1956, he and Loftus travelled to Alaska and Japan to visit strategic warning sites and local COMINT intercept and analysis sites.
In September returned to Europe for a long visit ── traveling across western Europe through the winter to various COMINT locations.
He developed pneumonia in Paris and was forced to delay his return until February 1957.125

source:
John Schutte, ‘Andrew W. Marshall and the Epistemic Community of the Cold War’, 2015, http://www.au.af.mil/au/aupress/digital/pdf/paper/dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf

dp_0016_schutte_casting_net_assessment.pdf

Schutte, John M., 1976
  Casting net assessment : Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war / John M. Schutte, Lieutenant Colonel, USAF.
1. Marshall, Andrew W., 1921─ 2. United States. department of defense. director of net assessment ── biography. 3. united states. department of defense ── officials and employees ── biography. 4. rand corporation ── biography. 5. united states ── forecasting. 6. military planning ── united states ── history ── 20th century. 7. military planning ── united states ── history ── 21st century. 8. united states ── military policy. 9. strategy. 10. cold war.
title: Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the cold war.

UA23.6.S43 2014
355.0092 -- dc23
  ·‘’•─“”
<------------------------------------------------------------------------>
•─•►●►·•●►💸🛠️🌐 ½ ¼ ¾ ¹ ² ³ ÷ × ± ° ƒ åÅ ¡ ™ ¯­ £ ¥ ¢ µ œ æ Æ ð ‡ ♦ ■ †
   ____________________________________
*2   “This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.”
      ──From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
     (Ackoff's best : his classic writings on management, Russell L. Ackoff., © 1999, hardcover, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., p.139)

   “This [copy & paste reference note] is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is [archive] with the understanding that the [researcher, investigator] is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.”
      ──From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
--
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior permission of the publisher.  

The W. Edwards Deming Institute.  All rights reserved.  Except as permitted under the United States copyright act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher.

All right reserved.  No part of this book may be reproduced without written permission from the publisher, except by a reviewer who may quote brief passages or reproduce illustrations in a review with appropriate credits nor may any part of this book be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means ── electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or other ── without written permission from the publisher.
   The information in this book is true and complete to the best of our knowlege.  All recommendations are made without guarantee on the part of the author or Storey publishing.  The author and publisher disclaim any liability in connection with the use of this information.

NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C., section 107, some material is provided without permission from the copyright owner, only for purposes of criticism, comment, scholarship and research under the "fair use" provisions of federal copyright laws. These materials may not be distributed further, except for "fair use," without permission of the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml

notice:  Do not purchase this book with the hopes of curing cancer or any other chronic disease
   We offer it for informative purposes to help cope with health situations and do not claim this book furnishes information as to an effective treatment or cure of the disease discussed ─ according to currently accepted medical opinion.  
   Although it is your right to adopt your own dietary and treating pattern, never the less suggestions offered in this book should not be applied to a specific individual except by his or her doctor who would be familiar with individual requirements and any possible complication.  Never attempt a lengthy fast without competent professional supervision.

the home health handbook makes every effort to insure that its information is medically accurate and up-to-date.  However, the information contained in this handbook is intended to complement, not substitute for, the advice of your own physician.  Before embarking on any medical treatment or changing your present program, you should consult with your doctor, who can discuss your individual needs, symptoms and treatment.

Monday, December 2, 2024

Anekantavada

 
The second main principle of Jainism is anekāntavāda,[76][77] from anekānta ("many-sidedness") and vada ("doctrine").[76][77]  The doctrine states that truth and reality are complex and always have multiple aspects.  It further states that reality can be experienced, but cannot be fully expressed with language. It suggests that human attempts to communicate are Naya, "partial expression of the truth".[76] According to it, one can experience the taste of truth, but cannot fully express that taste through language.  It holds that attempts to express experience are syāt, or valid "in some respect", but remain "perhaps, just one perspective, incomplete".[78] 

source:
        en.wikipedia.org
        Jainism 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sy%C4%81dv%C4%81da
These seven propositions also known as saptabhangi are:[53]
    syād-asti       – "in some ways it is"
    syād-nāsti      - "in some ways it is not"
    syād-asti-nāsti - "in some ways it is and it is not"
    syād-asti-avaktavyaḥ  - "in some ways it is and it is indescribable"
    syād-nāsti-avaktavyaḥ - "in some ways it is not and it is indescribable"
    syād-asti-nāsti-avaktavyaḥ - "in some ways it is, it is not and it is indescribable"
    syād-avaktavyaḥ            - "in some ways it is indescribable"
   ____________________________________

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anekantavada

Syādvāda is a theory of qualified predication, states Koller. It states that all knowledge claims must be qualified in many ways, because reality is many-sided.[4] It is done so systematically in later Jain texts through saptibhaṅgīnaya or "the theory of sevenfold scheme".[4] These saptibhaṅgī seem to have been first formulated in Jainism by the 5th or 6th century CE Svetambara scholar Mallavadin,[31] and they are:[30][32][33]

  1. Affirmation: syād-asti—in some ways, it is,
  2. Denial: syān-nāsti—in some ways, it is not,
  3. Joint but successive affirmation and denial: 
        syād-asti-nāsti—
        in some ways, it is, and it is not,
  4. Joint and simultaneous affirmation and denial: 
        syāt-asti-avaktavyaḥ—
        in some ways, it is, and it is indescribable,
  5. Joint and simultaneous affirmation and denial: 
        syān-nāsti-avaktavyaḥ—
        in some ways, it is not, and it is indescribable,
  6. Joint and simultaneous affirmation and denial: 
        syād-asti-nāsti-avaktavyaḥ—
        in some ways, it is, it is not, and it is indescribable,
  7. Joint and simultaneous affirmation and denial: 
        syād-avaktavyaḥ—
        in some ways, it is indescribable.
   ────────────────────────────────────
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaina_seven-valued_logic

The Saptabhangivada, the seven predicate theory may be summarized as follows:[4]

The seven predicate theory consists in the use of seven claims about sentences, each preceded by "arguably" or "conditionally" (syat), concerning a single object and its particular properties, composed of assertions and denials, either simultaneously or successively, and without contradiction. These seven claims are the following.

  1. Arguably, it (that is, some object) exists (syad asty eva).
  2. Arguably, it does not exist (syan nasty eva).
  3. Arguably, it exists; arguably, it doesn't exist (syad asty eva syan nasty eva).
  4. Arguably, it is non-assertible (syad avaktavyam eva).
  5. Arguably, it exists; arguably, it is non-assertible (syad asty eva syad avaktavyam eva).
  6. Arguably, it doesn't exist; arguably, it is non-assertible (syan nasty eva syad avaktavyam eva).
  7. Arguably, it exists; arguably, it doesn't exist; arguably it is non-assertible (syad asty eva syan nasty eva syad avaktavyam eva).

There are three basic truth values, namely, true (t), false (f) and unassertible (u). 
   ────────────────────────────────────

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Mervin Kelly (1894-1971)

 
       National academy of sciences
       A biographical memoir 
       of 
       Mervin Joe Kelly (1894─1971) 
       by John R. Pierce 
       copyright 1975 
       Mervin Joe Kelly (February 14, 1894─March 18, 1971)

creative technical management. 

As Frederick R. Kappel, former board chairman of AT&T said after
Kelly's death:
   "He was a great fellow for the Bell System. Mervin was
always and forever pushing the operating management, and the
heads of AT&T as well, to get on with new things. His aggres-
siveness got him in a lot of hot arguments, but I always sat back
and said, 'Give it to them, Mervin, that's what we need.' Every
place needs a fireball or spark plug, and he was it."

Others were less disturbed by Kelly's temper. Estill Green
describes his experience as vice president in charge of systems
engineering in these mellow words:
   "A few years in close association with Mervin were the hap-
piest time of my life. For years on end I had believed I needed
insulation from the high voltage. Yet when I was directly ex-
posed to it, I never experienced a serious shock, and I rejoiced
to observe how the high potential overpowered inertia and loose
thinking and prejudice.
   "I learned never to oppose him when he had the bit in his
teeth. Next morning I could remark casually, 'Mervin, there
are some aspects of that matter discussed in yesterday's confer-
ence that you may not be fully aware of.' He would listen, and
generally modify his position, to a minor or sometimes major
extent."

In 1943 Kelly outlined a branch-laboratory concept. This
eventually led to the establishment of laboratories for final
development at manufacturing locations of Western Electric.
This proved important in several ways. It linked final develop-
ment and its procedures and personnel closely to those respon-
sible for the manufacture of new devices and systems. It pre-
vented too large a concentration of personnel in a few central
locations. It gave a desirable measure of responsibility and
independence to work in various well-defined fields of devel-
opment.


While Kelly recognized basic research as the source of all
technological advances, he understood that a complicated tech-
nological process lies between discovery and use. He wrote:
   "There has been so much emphasis on industrial research
and mass-production methods in my country, that even our
well-informed public is not sufficiently aware of the necessary
and most important chain of events that lies between the initial
step of basic research and the terminal operation of manufac-
ture. In order to stress the continuity of procedures from re-
search to engineering of product into manufacture and to
emphasize their real unity, I speak of them as the single entity
'organized creative technology'."

   Using the Bell Laboratories as an example of organized tech-
nology, Kelly delineated three areas that preceded the manu-
facture of complicated technological systems:
   "The first includes all of the research and fundamental
development. This is our non-scheduled area of work. It pro-
vides the reservoir of completely new knowledge, principles,
materials, methods, and art that are essential for the develop-
ment of new communications systems and facilities.
    "The second we call 'systems engineering'. Its major respon-
sibility is the determination of the new specific systems and
facilities development projects—their operational and economic
objectives and the broad technical plan to be followed. 'Systems
engineering' controls and guides the use of the new knowledge
obtained from the research and fundamental development pro-
grams in the creation of new telephone services and the im-
provement and lowering of cost of services already established.
   "The third encompasses all specific development and design
of new systems and facilities. The work is most carefully pro-
grammed in conformity with the plan established by the systems
engineering studies. Our research and fundamental develop-
ment programs supply the new knowledge required in meeting
the objectives of the new specific devleopments."

   Concerning Systems Engineering, Kelly said:
   "Approximately 10% of our scientific and technical staff are
allotted to systems engineering. Its staff members must supply
a proper blending of competence and background in each of
the three areas that it contacts: research and fundamental devel-
opment, specific systems and facilities development, and opera-
tions. It is therefore, largely made up of men drawn from these
areas who have exhibited unusual talents in analysis and the
objectivity so essential to their appraisal responsibility."

   Kelly illustrated an ideal relation between systems engi-
neering, research and development by the case of the NIKE
antiaircraft missile:
   "For example, the programming study on the NIKE missile
system established that basic knowledge and art were available
for the development of a system that would meet the service
requirements except for a particular area of radar technology.
This area was at once subjected to a research and exploratory
development attack. The project was not undertaken until this
deficiency was eliminated by new knowledge from research.
The NIKE missile system now in production meets the require-
ments initially agreed upon and in its technical character is in
close correspondence with the plan of the initial study.
   "I am familiar with large military systems developments
where this approach is absent, where research and exploration
are intermingled with specific development, probably with the
intent of gaining time. Actually, time has been lost."

   Kelly goes on to say that development, while a continuous
operation, is done in three distinct stages: first the laboratory
model; after tests and modifications, the preproduction model,
which is field tested; and finally, the final design for manufac-
ture (by Western Electric).

   Above all, a technological organization must have the lead-
ership to see and pursue real opportunities and real needs. In
an address to a naval research conference, Kelly said:
   "The first, and perhaps the most important, factor is the
program itself. What shall it contain? What can be discarded
at once, and what shall be eliminated after limited exploration?
How can comprehensive coverage with freedom from gaps be
assured? In an endeavor so broad in scope and requiring such
a highly functional organization for its operation, how can
unneeded duplication be prevented, and duplication that is
worthwhile, though usually small in volume, be provided?"

Leaders or 
managers must be technologically trained and technologically
competent. Only thus can decisions be based on insight and
understanding rather than on salesmanship and hearsay. 


source:
       National academy of sciences
       A biographical memoir 
       of 
       Mervin Joe Kelly (1894─1971) 
       by John R. Pierce 
       copyright 1975 
       Mervin Joe Kelly (February 14, 1894─March 18, 1971)
·‘’•─“”
<------------------------------------------------------------------------>
   ____________________________________
*2   “This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.”
      ──From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
     (Ackoff's best : his classic writings on management, Russell L. Ackoff., © 1999, hardcover, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., p.139)

   “This [copy & paste reference note] is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is [archive] with the understanding that the [researcher, investigator] is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.”
      ──From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations
--
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior permission of the publisher.  

The W. Edwards Deming Institute.  All rights reserved.  Except as permitted under the United States copyright act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. 

NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C., section 107, some material is provided without permission from the copyright owner, only for purposes of criticism, comment, scholarship and research under the "fair use" provisions of federal copyright laws. These materials may not be distributed further, except for "fair use," without permission of the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml

notice:  Do not purchase this book with the hopes of curing cancer or any other chronic disease
   We offer it for informative purposes to help cope with health situations and do not claim this book furnishes information as to an effective treatment or cure of the disease discussed ─ according to currently accepted medical opinion.  
   Although it is your right to adopt your own dietary and treating pattern, never the less suggestions offered in this book should not be applied to a specific individual except by his or her doctor who would be familiar with individual requirements and any possible complication.  Never attempt a lengthy fast without competent professional supervision. 


Rock, Paper, Scissors (Len Fisher 2008)

 
Len Fisher, Ph.D., Rock, Paper, Scissors : game theory in everyday life, 2008



“”
‘’
pp.1-2
   Game theory tells us what is going on behind the confrontations, broken promises, and just plain cheating that we so often see in domestic quarrels, neighborhood arguments, industrial disputes, and celebrity divorce cases.  It also gives guidance to the best strategies to use in situations of competition and conflict, which is why big business and the military have taken to it like ducks to water since it was invented in the late 1940s. 
p.2
 It provides businessmen with strategies to get the better of their competitors, and guides Western military thinking to an alarming extent.  
p.2
To give just one example, all five game theorists who have won Nobel Prizes in economics have been employed as advisors to the Pentagon at some stage in their careers. 

p.2
   But there is another side to game theory ── a side that concerns cooperation rather than confrontation, collaboration rather than competition.  Biologists have used it to help understand how cooperation evolves in nature in the face of “survival of the fittest”. 
p.2
Sociologists, psychologists, and political scientists are using it to understand why we have such problems in cooperating, despite the fact that we need cooperation as never before if we are to resolve important and worrying problems like global warming, resource depletion, pollution, terrorism, and war. 
p.2
I wanted to see whether it could be used in everyday situations and to find out whether the lessons learned might be helpful in resolving larger-scale problems.  At the least, I thought, I might discover some clues as to how we as individuals could help to resolve such problems. 

p.2
   Game theorists have discovered an amazing link between all of these problem ── a hidden barrier to cooperation that threaten to produce untold damage unless we learn to do something about it, fast. 
p.2
The barrier presents us with a catch-22 logical trap that is a constant, if often unrecognized, presence in family arguments, neighborhood disputes, and day-to-day social interactions, as well as in the global issues that we now face. 

pp.2-3
It even accounts for the way that spoons mysteriously disappear from the communal areas of offices. 

p.3
   The serious explanation, though, was that this was an example of the Tragedy of the Commons ── a scenario that was brought to public attention by the California ecologist and game theorist Garret Hardin in a 1968 essay, although philosophers have been worrying about it since the time of Aristotle. 
p.3
Hardin illustrated it with the parable of a group of herders each grazing his own animals on common land, with one herder thinking about adding an extra animal to his herd.  An extra animal will yield a tidy profit, and the overall grazing capacity of the land will only be slightly diminished, so it seems perfectly logical for the herder to add an extra animal.  The tragedy comes when  all the other herders think the same way.  They all add extra animals, the land becomes overgrazed, and soon there is no pasture left. 

p.7
Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, 1984 

pp.7-8
It can be a very tight question as to which will emerge, with just a small change in circumstances making a vast difference to the outcome, as happens in boom-and-bust economic cycle and in the expansion and contraction of animal populations.  Mathematicians call the critical point a bifurcation point, with the prospect of two very different futures depending on which path is followed. 
p.8
The problem of cooperation is often the problem of finding a strategy that will tilt the balance of tit for tat toward a cooperative, back-scratching future rather than one of escalating conflict. 

p.8
My aim was to assemble a toolkit of potential strategies for cooperation, in the same way that I have built up a toolkit of techniques for tackling scientific problems during my life as a scientist. 

p.9
My conclusion in these two chapters is that we can't rely on external authorities or on our own sense of fairness to produce lasting cooperation, and that we must look more deeply at how we can use our own self-interest to make the cooperating self-enforcing. 


p.17
I soon discovered that the whole field of ethics, which is concerned with the principles that we should live by to create a stable and just society, comes down to the story of historical attempts to get around the problems exemplified by the Prisoner's and other social dilemma, which have their basis in logic and mathematics. 

p.17
   The great breakthrough in understanding social dilemmas came in 1949, when John Nash discovered that all of them arise from the same basic logical trap.  

p.18, p.19
p.18
He proved his genius within eighteen months by using the recently developed science of game theory first to identify the logical trap (now known as the “Nash equilibrium”) and then to prove a startling proposition ── that there is at least one Nash equilibrium lying in wait to trap us in every situation of competition or conflict in which the parties are unwilling or unable to communicate. 

p.18 

pp.44-47
p.45
mishna (a brief set of conclusions)
Two of the recommendations made intuitive sense, but the third puzzled Talmudic scholars until very recently. 
   If the estate was worth 300 dinars, they recommended proportional division (50, 100, 150), which satisfies the ratios specified in the marriage contracts.  If the state was worth only 100 dinars, the sages decided that equal division would be a fairer split. 
pp.45-46
What scholars could not understand until 1985 was why the rabbis had recommended a 50, 75, 75 split if the man left an estate worth the intermediate amount of 200 dinars. 
p.46
The recommendation did not seem to make any sort of sense, and many scholars dismissed it outright.  One even claimed that since he could not understand it, it must be a mistranslation.  
p.46
Then the problem came to the attention of the Nobel Prize-winning game theorist Robert Aumann, who in collaboration with economist Michael Maschler used game theory to prove that the rabbis involved in the original discussion had brilliantly hit upon the optimum, fairest solution to the problem. 

p.46
   The argument that they presented is both beautiful and simple.  They began by considering the problem of how to divide a resource when one person claims ownership of all of it and another claims ownership of half of it.  The answer?  Divide it according to the ratio of 75:25, because the ownership of half the resource by one of the parties is undisputed (and goes to that party), leaving the other half in dispute, for which the fairest solution is to divide the second half 50:50.  They called their solution “equal division of the contested sum”, and proved that in the case of the man with three wives “the division of the estate among the three creditors is such that any two of them divide the sum they together receive, according to the principle of equal division of the contested sum.”

p.46
   It sounded to me as though this would be an excellent principle to apply to sharing in everyday life, first because it is so simple and second because it feels so fair.  I had the opportunity to try it out when a friend and I went to a garage sale and found a stall loaded high with secondhand books.  Rather than competing for the most desirable books, we pooled our resources and bought all the books that either of us wanted.  
pp.46-47
Then we divided them into three piles:  the ones that I particularly liked but he didn't want, the ones that he particularly liked but I didn't want, and the ones that we both wanted.  We then took turns in choosing a book at at time from the third pile (the contested sum) until we had divided it equally.  Very simple.  Very satisfying. 

p.51
   Democratic sharing isn't always so easy to achieve, as I found when I was the policy coordinator for a newly formed, and now extinct, political party in Australia.  One of the reasons for our extinction was our keenness to be truly democratic.  Every policy decision had to be discussed, decided, and agree upon democratically by the whole of the membership.  This took an unconscionable amount of time and a huge amount of adminstration, and often resulted in watered-down or even self-contradictory policies.  

p.51
   I decided to try an experiment in making things easier for the members (and for myself) by introducing a decision-making method called the Delphi technique.  The idea has game theory roots, and it is very simple in principle.  Everyone has their say (about policies in this particular case) in a questionaire, and then an independent facilitator (me again, in this case ── we were a very small party!) summarizes their arguments and conclusions and sends the summary back out to all members of the group.  Everyone can then vote again after they have considered and revised their arguments and conclusions in the light of what the other have said. 
   The idea is for the members of the group to use the best information available to them to converge on the best decision. 

p.52
   My investigation of I Cut and You Choose revealed that it can be a very effective strategy for fair sharing but that it usually requires enforcement by an external authority to make it work (as in my father's division of the fireworks).  Fairness itself does not provide guaranteed self-enforcement of cooperative agreements when it comes to the practical politics of everyday living. 


p.86
French philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau
   Rousseau saw the story as a metaphor for the eternal tension between social cooperation and individual freedom.  In his words (referring to the social contract between the individual and the state), “True freedom consists in giving up some of our freedoms so that we may have freedom.”

pp.79-80     Schelling point
Nobel Prize economist Thomas Schelling
Thomas Schelling, described it as a “focal point for each person's expectation of what the other expects him to expect to be expected to do.”
p.79
The clue to a Schelling point may come as some sort of social convention, as when a man and woman are heading for the same door, as when a man and woman are heading for the same door and the man politely stands back to let the woman go first, when bus passengers line up to enter a bus, or when people leaving a plane wait for those in the aisle to move ahead before leaving their seats.

pp.79-80
We also see this in conversations, in which the person talking may be thought of as being on the winning side of a Nash equilibrium; it may come in the form of a pause to let the other person take their turn on the winning side of the alternative Nash equilibrium. 
 
p.80
   Schelling points provide cooperative solutions to problems involving parties that would like to coordinate their actions but can't communicate to do so. 

p.80
Schelling's own example concerned two people who have to meet on a certain day in New York City but neither of them knows when or where.  When he put the question to a group of students, the majority answer was “noon at the information booth at Grand Central Station.”  Its tradition as a meeting place made this a natural Schelling point.

p.80
In a real-life example, two colleagues of mine managed to meet in Paris, even though neither of them could remember when or where to meet on the specified day.  After trying the Eiffel Tower, one of them remembered that the other really liked churches, and they eventually met in the Notre Dame cathedral at 6:00 P.M. 

p.80
   Schelling points rely on implicit or explicit clues, and problems can arise when people give false clues. 

p.80
According to psychologist Geoffrey Beattie, this may have arisen from her earlier speech training, which produced a “drawl on the stressed syllable ... and a falling intonation pattern associated with the end of a clause.”  Both of these have been identified by other psychologists as a turn-offering clues ── that is, Schelling points. 

p.102
   I found that standing back to let the strong ones fight it out before entering the fray worked in many areas of life.  This applied especially to committee meetings.  Rather than enter a debate at an early stage, I could frequently get my way simply by waiting until others had argued their points vociferously to the point of exhaustion, and then bringing up my own point at the last minute 

p.102
Kilgour and Brams argue that we can still learn lessons, so long as we recognize that we need carefully to identify the rules under which the real-life versions are being played out.  This is particularly important because optimal play can be very sensitive to a slight change in the circumstances. 

pp.102-103
One of the most robust lessons is that the strongest participant is often in the weakest position, since it will be an early target. 

p.109    ritualized displays
As we know, many animals use ritualized displays to negotiate for mates, food, and territory.  Humans also use body language and ostentatious display

p.109    Ultimate Irrelevant Encyclopaedia 

p.111    threats and promises
   Threats and promises are the twin tools of negotiation.  The choice of which to use, however, depends very much on circumstances.  To be effective, they must be believed.  

p.111
   Threats are cheaper than promises, because if a threat is effective, it will not need to be followed through. 

p.112    India!
But we didn't know India!  Instead of giving us the change, the merchant wanted to sell us more clothes in lieu, and he was prepared to bargain all day rather than give us the actual change. 

p.112
We feel no compunction about using this approach, because our Indian friends assure us that in almost every case the merchants know exactly how much their botton line is, and they usually succeed in getting a high price from us anyway. 

p.112    Game theorists, coalition
Game theorists have extended the term [coalition] to mean any alliance in which the members coordinate their strategies to work cooperatively toward a common objective.  

pp.112-113
In the eyes of a game theorist, marriage is a coalition (though not always a very successful one). 

p.113    game theorist Roger McGain
p.115
side payment (payment that you make to keep them on your side and to stop them from leaving your coalition)

p.115    cliques
p.115    backstabbing, gossiping, switching of allegiances 

p.118
But this was like a red flag to a bull, and she kept coming up with more jobs that just had to be done. 

p.118
   As I mentioned in chapter 3, a Nash equilibrium that we reach by means of such hints is called a Schelling point. 

p.129
   According to Barbara Misztal, author of Trust in Modern Societies, trust performs three functions:  it makes social life more predictable, it creates a sense of community, and it makes it easier for people to work together. 

p.168    fear of sanctions 
    Social norms are important guidelines for cooperation.  They are, in the words of economists Ernst Fehr and Urs Fischbacher, “standards of behaviour that are based on widely shared beliefs [about] how individual group members ought to behave in a given situation.”  But what makes us stick to these standards is another question entirely. The bulk of the evidence suggests that our primary motivation is the fear of sanctions by other members of the group. 

pp.172-175
p.174    be firm, but be prepared to forgive 
   A less irrevocable trigger strategy is Generous Tit for Tat, which will respond to cooperation with cooperation but will also sometimes (not always) respond to defection with a further offer of cooperation. 
p.174
A marriage partner might decide to come back after a while, for example, and give their partner a second chance. (If they will come back only when their partner shows definite evidence of change, they are using ordinary Tit for Tat.)
p.174
    Any of these strategies might succeed.  Any of them might fail.  Generous Tit for Tat is less punishing than harshly retributive Mrs. B, because it occasionally introduces the forgiving strategy of Mrs. D to break cycles of retribution and counterretribution. 
p.174
It looks like the best practical approach to many of life's problems. 
p.174
According to relationship psychologists with whom I have discussed the matter, it is the one that is most closely aligned to the psychologically based strategy “be firm, but be prepared to forgive.”

pp.174-175
Computer simulations have shown, however, that it is outperformed by PAVLOV, which continues to cooperate so long as the other party does but which will also automatically offer cooperation if both parties have lost out through mutual defection in their last encounter. 

p.175
As soon as we saw each other cheat on the cooperation by taking that first drink, we each played Pavlov by offering not to drink if the other one didn't, and the situation was saved. 
    Win-Stay, Lose-Shift, by offering cooperation when both parties have lost out through cheating on a previous encounter, seems to be the most effective of all the trigger strategies that have so far been investigated. 
p.175
All of them rely on the power of repeated interactions to induce and maintain cooperation.  
p.175
There is another factor, though, that the memory of previous encounters doesn't even enter into. 

p.178
   Martin Nowak has recently brought all of these elements together in a wonderful synthesis, “Five Rules for the Evolution of Cooperation”, based on the notion that a cooperator is someone who pays a cost (c) for another individual to receive a benefit (b). 
pp.178-179
The individual cooperator loses out, but know that a population of cooperators has a higher average evolutionary fitness (that is, its chance of surviving and reproducing) than does a population of defectors. 

p.179
   Nowak identifies five different mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation, each of which has a different cost-benefit relationship: 

  1. Kin Selection:  
  2. Repeated Interactions (Direct Reciprocity): 
  3. Indirect Reciprocity: 
  4. Network Reciprocity: 
  5. Group Selection: 

pp.195-198
Here is my personal selection of the most useful──my top ten tips for cooperation in everyday life: 

1. Say if you win, shift if you lose. 

2. Bring an extra player in. 

3. Set up some form of reciprocity. 

4. Restrict your own future options so that you will lose out if you defect on cooperation. 

5. Offer trust. 
   This is another way of offering credible commitment.  If you genuinely offer trust, trust will often be returned, making cooperation that much easier. 

6. Create a situation that neither party can independently escape from without loss. 
   This is, of course, a Nash equilibrium.  If the cooperative solution to a dilemma is also a Nash equilibrium, your problems are solved. 

7. Use side payments to create and maintain cooperative coalitions. 
   The side payment can be money, social or emotional rewards, or even outright bribery.  All that matters is to ensure that people will lose out if they leave your coalition to join or form another one. 

8. Be aware of the seven deadly dilemmas, and try to reorganize the benefits and costs to different players so that the dilemma disappears. 
   This is, of course, not as easy as it sounds, or the world would be a happier place.  It is a step in the right direction, though, and always worth a try. 

9. Divide goods, responsibilities, jobs, and penalties so that the result is envy free. 
   Our sense of fairness is a strong motivator; use it by setting up situations in which the process is agreed upon and transparent, and the outcome is obviously fair. 

10.  Divide large groups into smaller ones. 



p.206
23    To often, parties will agree to a negotiated compromise and then one party will break the agreement when it suits them  
This is exactly what Adolf Hitler did when he signed the Munich Agreement with Neville Chamberlain, Benito Mussolini, and Édouard Daladier in September 1938.  The agreement handed de facto control of Czechoslovakia to Germany. (It should not be confused with the abortive England-Germany peace treaty that was later signed by Hitler and Chamberlain alone.)  The three non-German signatories attempted to minimize the possibility of war by permitting Germany's annexation of Czechoslovakia, so long as Hitler agreed to go no further.  Hitler beat their strategy by agreeing to the deal and then breaking the bargain and invading Poland a year later, when had had time to build up Germany's military strength. 

p.50
Czechoslovakia was only created as an independent country in 1918.  The country is made up of two separate peoples, the Czechs and the Slovaks, each speaking a different language.  Many Czechoslovaks are farmers, but the country also had important coal, iron, and steel industries.  
   (The picture atlast of the world / illustrated by Brian Delf., 1. atlases. [1. atlases. 2. geography.], 1991,  G1021.P65  1991, 912--dc20, 1991, p.50 )

pp.203-231
132    You can't get trust in a bottle   You can, however, put it in your pocket.  Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization scientist John Zic and his team have developed a “trust extension device” that can be plugged into strange computers.  Carried on a memory stick or a mobile phone, it makes trust portable, opening the way for secure transactions to be undertaken anywhere, even in an Internet café.  The device creates its own environment on an untrusted computer and, before it runs an application, it establishes trust with the remote enterprise server.  Both ends must prove their identities to each other and also prove that the computing environments are as expected.  Once the parties prove to each other that they are trustworthy, the device accesses the remote server and the transaction takes place. 

pp.210-211
40 
When I was visiting Laos a few year ago, I fell into conversation with a local guide and made the point that Laotians seemed to be hell-bent on pursuing a better material way of life and losing their traditional way of life in the process.  He laughted in my face.  “You should try living it”, he said, “and then see whether you come up with the same argument.”
   He was quite right.  I was valuing his cultural heritage from my perspective and not from his. 

p.211
   The Center for International Forestry Research is now trying out a new method when it comes to resources in Borneo, where they are finding the sort of decision-guiding information that simply doesn't emerge from classical biodiversity surveys (Charlie Pye-Smith, “Biodiversity: A New Perspective”, New Scientist, December 10, 2005, 50-53).  Researchers ask the indigenous people which resources are most important to them and respect their views when it comes to “cake cutting” and different uses. 

p.211
40   What really worked was a bribe  

p.213
51     Delphi technique
Developed by the RAND corporation in the 1960s (where game theory was also being developed and exploited), the Delphi technique has been used by many large organizations──not only businesses and government but also organizations like the National Cancer Instistute.  It is named after the Greek oracle at Delphi.  Her name was Pythia, and she was a priestess of the god Apollo.  She is supposed to be have delivered prophecies inspired by Apollo, but, more likely, they were actually inspired by ethylene gas leaking into the cave where she lived. 
   For a good description of the modern Delphi technique, see Allan Cline, “Prioritization Process Using Delphi Technique”, white paper, Carolla Development, 2000, www.carolla.com/wp-delph.htm. 

p.214
51     averaged opinion of a mass of equally expert or equally ignorant observers 
Eric S. Raymond, The Cathedral and the Bazaar: Musing on Liux and Open Source by an Accidental Revolutionary, rev. ed. (Cambridge, Mass.: O'Reilly, 2001).  
([ google or bing ‘cathedral and the bazaar’, you should be able to find a link to a copy of this TEXT ])

p.215
65  
Bertrand Russell, “In Praise of Idleness”, but he made a valuable point when he said that “the idea that the poor should have leisure has always been shocking to the rich” (In Praise of Idleness and Other Essays [New York: Routledge, 2004], www.zpub.com/notes/idle.html). 

p.216
67  

p.231

p.236
140    Burn your bridges   The ultimate in burning your bridges comes from some primitive fungi and algae that gave up their individuality to form a combined organism called a “lichen” (with the algae harvesting light for energy and the fungi extracting chemical nutrients from the environment).  The original fungi and algae have long since become extinct, but lichens continue to thrive.  Some bacteria showed a similar commitment early in cellular evolution when they chose to use living cells as homes in return for providing the cell with energy.  Those bacteria eventually lost their ability to exist independently, becoming the mitochondria that we harbor today. 
   This is not to suggest that any of these species made a conscious decision to limit their own options by burning their bridges.  Evolutionary pressures took care of that. 

p.240
148    James George Frazer, The Golden Bough, first published in 1890, a wide-ranging comparative study of mythology and religion that very much shocked its audience when it was first published, 
       The title comes from the Greek myth that is retold in Virgil's Aeneid, in which Aeneas journeys to Hades with the Sybil and presents the golden bough to the gatekeeper in order to gain admission. 

p.241
149   “the trust mechanism”  Daniel M. Hausman, Trust in Game Theory, unpublished paper, 1997, philosophy.wisc.edu/hausman/papers/trust.htm, used with permission. 

p.241
152   person-centered approach   This approach, in which the client is offered “unconditional positive regard”, is now used by many professional counselors.  It was pioneered by Rogers and described in his groundbreaking book Client-Centered Therapy:  Its Current Pratice, Implications, and Theory (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1951).  For more information, see www.carlrogers.info/ 

pp.241-242
155   Mrs. Doasyouwouldbedoneby  and  Mrs. Bedonebyasyoudid
When the five-year-old Julian Huxley (later become famous as zoologist and founder of UNESCO) read The Water Babies, he asked his grandfather (the redoubtable T. H. Huxley, known as “Darwin's bulldog”) whether he had ever seen a water baby.  His grandfather's reply was a masterpiece of adult writing to a child without patronizing: 

   My dear Julian, 

   I never could make sure about that water baby.  I have seen Babies
   in water and Babies in bottles; but the Baby in the water was not   
   in the the bottle and the Baby in the bottle was in the water.  My 
   friend who wrote the story of the Water Baby was a very kind 
   man and very clever.  Perhaps he thought I could see as much in 
   the water as he did.  There are some people who see a great deal 
   and some who see very little in the same things. 
       When you grow up I dare say you will be one of the great-
   deal seers and see things more wonderful than Water Babies 
   where other folks see nothing. (Julian Huxley, Memories 
   [London: Allen & Unwin, 1970], 24-25.) 


p.242
155   repeated interaction are an important key to finding cooperative solutions   This is on the assumption that the sequence of interactions is indefinite ── in other words, its end cannot be predicted.  If it does have a definite, predictable end, then the Prisoner's Dilemma and other social dilemma still continue to exert their stranglehold, at least in theory, because we can always look forward and reason backward to come up with the conclusion that it is rational to defect on cooperation at the last step (the end game), and thence on the step before that, and the step before that, and the ...  By reasoning from the end backward, when we know that there is a definite end, the whole game unravels. 

p.242
156   ethic of reciprocity   While I was writing this chapter, I came across a wonderful example from the show Dr. Phil.  Talking about mass killers, Dr. Phil made the point that the one thing they had in common was that they all felt excluded.  “What would have been the effect”, he mused, “if someone had said at some stage, ‘hey, come and sit with us.’” 

p.245
161    the stolen generation   A particularly poignant example of what happened is depicted in the film Rabbit-Proof Fence, which is based on the real story of three young girls of Aboriginal descent who escaped from the orphanage to which they had been taken, and trekked across Australia to rejoin their families. 

p.246
Bertrand Russell's Sceptical Essays, 
Jacob Bronowski's The Ascent of Man, 
David Attenborough's The Living Planet, 
Simon Singh's Fermat's Enigma 

p.247
165    the strongest eventually coming out on top 
       natural selection ── that is, the survival and propagation of those members of a species that are best fitted to their environment and circumstances. 
Darwin meant it to describe any situation in which species that are best adapted to their environmental circumstances have the best chance of surviving for sufficiently long to pass their survival characteristics to their progeny. 

p.247
* Darwin used it in The Origin of Species, which was published in 1859.  In chapter 4, entitled “Natural Selection: Or the Survival of the Fittest”, Darwin wrote that “this preservation of favourable individual differences and variations, and the destruction of those which are injurious, I have called Natural Selection, or the Survival of the Fittest.”

pp.248-249
165   Successful cooperative social groups need their members to be altruistic and cooperative   The first person to recognize the importance of cooperation in evolution was the Russian anarchist Peter Kropotkin, who argued in his 1902 book Mutual Aid: A Factor of Evolution (www.gutenberg.org/etext/4341) that “sociability is as much a law of nature as mutual struggle ... mutual aid is as much a law of nature as mutual struggle.”  Indeed, many experiments have now shown that most animals look after their kin to protect their genetic inheritance not because they know that this is what they are doing, but because those animals that survive and prosper are the ones that have cooperative behavior encoded in their genes. 
   Kropotkin wrote Mutual Aid after a journey to eastern Siberia and northern Manchuria.  He was clearly looking for a biological justification for socialism, but his observations nevertheless stand as an unbiased account of nature in action.  His search was based on a lecture that he had heard at a Russian Congress of Naturalists in January 1880, during which the St. Petersburg zoologist Karl Kessler had spoken on the “law of mutual aid”.   “Kessler's idea”, Kropotkin, “was, that besides the law of Mutual Struggle there is in Nature the law of Mutual Aid, which, for the success of the struggle for life, and especially for the progressive evolution of the species, is far more important than the law of mutual contest.”
   What he saw during his journey made two lasting impressions. “One of them”, he said, “was the extreme severity of the struggle for existence which most species of animals have to carry on against an inclement Nature; the enormous destruction of life which periodically results from natural agencies; and the consequent paucity of life over the vast territory which fell under my observation.”  The other was that, “even in those few spots where animal life teemed in abundance, I failed to find ── although I was eagerly looking for it ── that bitter struggle for the means of existence, among animals belonging to the same species, which was considered by most Darwinists (though not always by Darwin himself) as the dominant characteristic of struggle for life, and the main factor of evolution.”  Instead, he discovered countless examples of “the importance of the Mutual Aid factor of evolution.” 

p.252
178    “Five Rules for the Evolution of Cooperation”   Martin A. Nowak, Science 314 (2006): 1560-63.  If you don't read any of the other references that I have given, at least read this!  The text can be found at www.fed.cuhk.edu.hk/~lchang/material/Evolutionary/Group behavior rules.pdf. 

p.252
181   One surprising way to produce harmony and cooperation from conflict, disagreement, and discord is to introduce an even more discordant person   
Business gurus Barry Nalebuff and Adam Brandenburger provide a market example in their book Co-opetition ([London: HarperCollins, 1996], 105-6), saying that it can sometimes be worthwhile for a business to actively encourage competitors ── even to pay them to become competitors.  They cite the example of Intel, which licensed its original 8086 microprocessor technology to twelve other companies.  This created a competitive market for the chip and assured buyers that they wouldn't end up being held hostage by a single supplier.  With that guarantee, buyers were willing to commit to Intel's technology. 
      The opposite effect is also possible, as illustrated by Jaroslav Hasek's Good Soldier Svek (translated by Cecil Parrott [London: Penguin, 1974]), a novel set during the First World War, in which the lead character practically brings the German army to its knees by his over enthusiastic cooperation and literal following of orders. 


p.254
186





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  Bernie Clark., From the Gita to the Grail : exploring yoga stories & western myths, 2014 p.345      ... literal definition of dukkha: ...